Is Bitcoin’s September Dip a Myth? A Deep Dive Into Redtember and Greentober
Is Bitcoin's September Dip A Myth? A Deep Dive Into Redtember And Greentober
Key Takeaways
- Historical analysis shows varied performance for the price of Bitcoin during the months of September and October.
- BTC price behavior during these months has seen bearish and bullish trends depending on the year.
- September tends to be more bearish, with ten occasions of prices going down and only three occasions of prices going up from 2011 to 2023.
- October historically performs better, with eight times up and only five times down, often marking a recovery month after a weak September.
Overview of Bitcoin Price Volatility
Bitcoin is known for its volatility , with price fluctuations that can be affected by numerous external factors such as market sentiment, regulatory news, and macroeconomic shifts. September, often coined “Redtember,” has normally been a downward trend, while October, dubbed “Greentober,” tends to see price rebound to the upside.
This article aims to explain this pattern over the past decade and forecast short-term future BTC price movements in the last four months of 2024.
Redtember and Greentober: Bitcoin’s Monthly Performance
September Overview
Across Bitcoin’s history since 2011, September has shown a consistent bearish trend.
Out of the 13 years analyzed, the price dropped in ten, with only three instances where the price increased. This downward momentum can be attributed to market corrections after mid-year rallies, as traders often take profits during this period.
Historically, September has been viewed as a volatile and corrective month for Bitcoin, earning the term “Redtember.” Notably, even in bullish years like 2017, September saw a dip before the market resumed its upward trajectory.
September Overview in Halving Years
During the halving years of 2012, 2016, and 2020, September followed similar bearish patterns.
In 2012, while the halving event in November was approaching, the market sentiment remained cautious, with September seeing a slight rise from $10.20 to $12.50.
In 2016, Bitcoin had already seen a price increase post-halving in July, but September still showed a small gain, moving from $572 to $603.
In 2020, despite greater expectations around the May halving, September still saw a decline from $11,650 to $10,778. indicating post-halving corrections are typical.
October Overview
October, on the other hand, has typically seen stronger performance, with eight out of the 13 years seeing a price increase in October. Known as “Greentober,” it often marks the recovery period after September’s downturn.
The month has seen significant upward movements in years like 2013 and 2021, where Bitcoin experienced major rallies. Historically, the positive sentiment in October is driven by renewed market optimism, technical breakouts, and external factors like institutional interest or political certainty.
October in Halving Years
In halving years, October often benefits from post-halving optimism.
In 2012, Bitcoin’s price remained stable, closing at $11.40, signaling calm before the November price increase post-halving. In 2016, October saw BTC increase from $603 to $725, as the effects of the July halving kicked in.
Similarly, in October 2020, Bitcoin ranged between $10,778 and $13,746, marking the start of a bullish cycle driven by institutional adoption and scarcity due to the halving.
Halving years tend to magnify October’s performance as the market responds to Bitcoin’s supply shock.
As a result:
- Redtember: refers to September, historically associated with negative price movements for Bitcoin.
- Greentober: highlights October as a recovery month for Bitcoin, where price trends upwards following the dips in September.
This article will analyze over ten years of Bitcoin data, identifying price trends in these two months based on historical data and technical analysis.
Historical Analysis (Last 13 Years)
Over the last decade, Bitcoin’s performance during September and October has consistently reflected market trends and global sentiment.
In years when the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) was in the “Optimism” or “Belief” range, where Bitcoin currently stands in September 2024, the cryptocurrency has in the past shown that October is generally a resilient month, rebounding above a typically bearish September pattern.
For instance, in 2013, 2017, and 2021, the market was firmly in the “Belief” phase, which signaled strong bullish sentiment. During these years, Bitcoin saw price recoveries in October after slight dips in September. This suggests that when sentiment is optimistic, even brief market corrections do not derail long-term uptrends.
| Year | September (Open to Close) | September Direction | October (Open to Close) | October Direction |
| 2011 | $8.20 → $5.10 | Down | $5.10 → $3.30 | Down |
| 2012 | $10.20 → $12.50 | Up | $12.50 → $11.40 | Down |
| 2013 | $144.20 → $130.30 | Down | $130.30 → $202.00 | Up |
| 2014 | $502.50 → $389.60 | Down | $389.60 → $341.20 | Down |
| 2015 | $229.30 → $236.00 | Up | $236.00 → $326.00 | Up |
| 2016 | $572.00 → $603.00 | Up | $603.00 → $725.00 | Up |
| 2017 | $4,758.00 → $4,312.00 | Down | $4,312.00 → $6,479.00 | Up |
| 2018 | $7,000.00 → $6,625.00 | Down | $6,625.00 → $6,330.00 | Down |
| 2019 | $9,608.00 → $8,083.00 | Down | $8,083.00 → $9,165.00 | Up |
| 2020 | $11,650.00 → $10,778.00 | Down | $10,778.00 → $13,746.00 | Up |
| 2021 | $47,156.00 → $43,800.00 | Down | $43,800.00 → $61,300.00 | Up |
| 2022 | $20,049.00 → $19,700.00 | Down | $19,700.00 → $20,700.00 | Up |
| 2023 | $27,200.00 → $25,670.00 | Down | $25,670.00 → $30,300.00 | Up |
In October 2017, Bitcoin’s price increased even though global political tensions rose, particularly between the U.S. and North Korea . This period increased threats of nuclear conflict, with North Korea conducting missile tests and the U.S. responding with military posturing.
Throughout these tensions, Bitcoin increased from $4,312 to $6,479. Investors began to view Bitcoin as a “safe-haven” asset, akin to gold, protecting wealth during instability.
With NUPL in the “Belief” phase, Bitcoin’s resistance was reinforced by the narrative that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and a speculative hedge against market volatility. Given historical patterns, this could signal that, while the market remains cautious, a strong October recovery is probable.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s September and October Performance:
Macroeconomic Factors
From 2011 to 2023, global macroeconomic events, such as inflation concerns and central bank policies, have always impacted Bitcoin’s price.
In September 2020, driven by concerns about the pandemic and economic shutdowns, Bitcoin rallied from $10,778 in September to $13,746 by October as investors anticipated further monetary stimulus. This pattern of price recovery in October aligns with the typical “Greentober” narrative.
However, during September 2022, fears of inflation and aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve led to a decline in Bitcoin, with its price dropping from $20,049 at the start of September to $19,700 by month-end. Investors showed a strong risk-off sentiment, shifting funds away from speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Market Sentiment
Sentiment indicators like the NUPL indicator illustrate the market sentiment during these months. Historically, NUPL values in September tend to indicate reduced optimism, corresponding to price drops.
For example, in September 2018, the NUPL was in Capitulation territory, reflecting widespread market pessimism, and Bitcoin’s price fell from $7,000 to $6,625. However, by October 2019, NUPL began to shift toward Optimism as Bitcoin rebounded from $8,083 to $9,165, showing that market sentiment was turning positive.
Technical Analysis
Technical indicators like moving averages (MA) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) can also provide insight into Bitcoin’s September-October price moves.
Regulatory Developments
Regulatory issues have often sparked market price fluctuations in September and October. In September 2017, news of China banning initial coin offerings (ICOs) and tightening cryptocurrency regulations triggered a sharp sell-off, causing Bitcoin to drop from $4,758 to $4,312.
By October, the market had recovered as those regulatory fears passed, and traders began anticipating more favorable developments, pushing Bitcoin to $6,479. Similarly, in October 2021, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first Bitcoin futures Exchange Traded Fund (ETF ), which sparked a massive price increase from $43,800 at the start of October to $61,300 by the end of the month.
Conclusion
While “Redtember” has some merit historically, Bitcoin’s performance in September has not always been negative, and market conditions vary yearly. After seven consecutive years of price declines in September, Bitcoin might also turn upward, which would be the fifth time in 15 years the price went up in September.
October is normally a month of recovery, but as with any financial market, past performance does not guarantee future results. With regard to October, Bitcoin has gone up for eight of the last nine years.
Given this pattern, this could be the tenth year, suggesting that for every decade, there’s typically one unfavorable October, indicating a potential price increase for Bitcoin this October.
FAQs
Is there a historical precedent for Bitcoin's price movements during September and October?
Yes, historical data shows a tendency for Bitcoin’s price to dip in September, with a potential recovery in October. However, these patterns are not consistent every year.
How do macroeconomic factors influence Bitcoin's performance during these months?
Global economic conditions, such as inflation rates, interest rate policies, and geopolitical events, can lead to risk-off behavior. In September, these factors negatively impacted Bitcoin, but it could recover once these fears subside in October.
Can technical analysis be used to predict Bitcoin's price movements during Redtember and Greentober?
Yes, technical analysis tools like RSI, moving averages, and volume trends are often used to gauge potential price movements during these months. However, external factors such as news events also play a significant role.
