Key Takeaways
- A newly created Polymarket account has put roughly $818,000 on the CLARITY Act not becoming law in 2026.
- Polymarket now prices the chance of H.R. 3633 being signed into law this year at just 14%, down from above 80% earlier in 2026.
- The Senate faces a crucial Sept. 15 cloture vote, but ethics rules, stablecoin rewards and illicit-finance provisions remain unresolved.
A newly created Polymarket wallet has made an $818,000 bet against the CLARITY Act, just weeks before the US Senate is scheduled to hold a crucial procedural vote on the crypto market structure bill.
The account, VelvetNova27, spent roughly $818,130 buying “No” shares on whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, or H.R. 3633, will be signed into law before the end of 2026.
The wallet was created in August and displays only one prediction on its Polymarket profile. It entered the position at an average price of roughly 77.7 cents, acquiring more than 1.05 million “No” shares. If the market ultimately resolves no, those shares would be worth more than $1.05 million.
The trade has already moved in the wallet’s favor.
Polymarket now prices in only about a 14% chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year, meaning the No side is trading around 86 cents. The market has attracted approximately $11 million in total volume since opening in January.
The odds were above 80% earlier this year, then dropped sharply as negotiations repeatedly missed expected deadlines.
It Is Not Just One Whale Betting Against CLARITY
The $818,000 position is not the only large bearish bet to appear.
Another new Polymarket account, KatsuManager87, reportedly put about $676,800 into the same No outcome through three trades. Together, the two recently created accounts have committed close to $1.5 million against the bill, which is set to become law this year.
There is no public evidence that the wallets are controlled by the same person, that they coordinated their trades, or that they possess nonpublic information. Their positions also should not be read as proof that the legislation will fail.
Large bets can influence prediction-market prices, particularly when liquidity is limited.
Still, the timing comes as Congress faces a shrinking window to finish one of the crypto industry’s biggest legislative priorities.
Sept. 15 Could Decide CLARITY Act’s Fate
Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 before the August recess. The Senate Press Gallery says the motion will ripen at 2:15 p.m. on Sept. 15.
That vote is not the final passage; it determines whether the Senate can move forward with consideration of the bill, and 60 votes are needed to clear the procedural hurdle.
Negotiators are still fighting over restrictions on government officials’ crypto interests, rules covering stablecoin rewards and protections against illicit finance.
Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego said Congress could still “land this plane,” but added that stronger ethics language will be needed to reach 60 votes.
President Donald Trump, meanwhile, urged Congress on Aug. 19 to pass a “fair version” of the legislation, keeping White House pressure on lawmakers.
For now, traders are taking the opposite side. With Polymarket’s Yes price at just 14 cents, the market is effectively betting that Congress runs out of time before Dec. 31.
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Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
