Bitcoin closes above its 365-day moving average for the first time since 2023. CryptoQuant sees $88,000-$90,000 as the next resistance zone. | Credit: CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023, a signal CryptoQuant associates with past bull markets.
BTC has cleared the $76,000–$81,000 supply zone, with the next resistance around $88,000- $90,000.
CryptoQuant’s other market indicators have turned bullish, but selling near $90,000 could slow the rally.
Bitcoin has closed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023, a crossover that CryptoQuant says has marked the start of previous bull markets.
The moving average stood near $80,500 when Bitcoin reclaimed it. With BTC trading around $86,000, analysts are now watching a band of potential resistance between $88,000 and $90,000.
The crossover strengthens the bullish case, though it does not guarantee that Bitcoin will continue to rise.
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A moving average smooths out daily price swings to show the broader trend. The 365-day measure tracks roughly a year of Bitcoin prices, making a sustained move above it more consequential than a break of a short-term trading level.
CryptoQuant’s analysis describes the crossover as a bull market confirmation. According to the firm, closes above the line preceded the bull phases that began in 2019 and 2023, while moves below it accompanied the bear markets that followed in late 2021 and November 2025.
This year’s signal follows months of uneven trading. Bitcoin spent much of 2026 below the annual average even as some on-chain measures began to improve. Its latest move puts the price back above a level that traders have used to judge the direction of past cycles.
The firm’s other indicators had turned positive before the price crossover. Its Bull Score Index entered bullish territory in mid-August and recently reached 80, above CryptoQuant’s 60 threshold for more durable bull market conditions.
Those measures draw on different data, but they point in the same direction as the moving average. They remain historical indicators, however: a pattern that appeared in earlier cycles may not hold in the current one.
Bitcoin Clears $81K Supply Zone, Faces $90K Test
Before Bitcoin could reach the mid-$80,000s, it had to push through an area where substantial selling had previously occurred.
CryptoQuant identified a supply cluster between $76,000 and $81,000, linked in part to sales by long-term holders and coins that had remained untouched for at least seven years.
Trading above that zone suggests buyers have absorbed the supply that had weighed on earlier rallies. It also shifts attention to the next concentration of coins acquired at higher prices: roughly $88,000 to $91,000.
The model’s central realized price, around $64,300, estimates the average acquisition cost of coins held by active traders. As the market price approaches the upper band, those traders may have a stronger incentive to take profits.
A test of $90,000 would therefore be a test of demand, not simply a round-number milestone.
Bitcoin would need enough buying interest to absorb any selling from holders seeking to exit near that level. Failure to break through could lead to a pause or pullback, even if the broader trend remains positive.
On the downside, the reclaimed 365-day average near $80,500 is an immediate level to watch. CryptoQuant also places the 200-day moving average around $70,600. These levels may attract buyers during a decline, but neither offers a guaranteed floor.
Altcoin Gains Have Yet to Put Most Holders in Profit
Bitcoin’s renewed strength has arrived alongside signs of broader participation across crypto markets. Yet gains elsewhere have not erased losses for many altcoin investors.
In a Sept. 22 post, Glassnode said the median altcoin still had less than 25% of its circulating supply in profit. That means recent price gains have left most coins in the typical altcoin’s supply below the price at which they last moved.
Most altcoin holders are still sitting on losses.
The median coin has less than a quarter of its supply in profit.
Global market tops tend to occur once a majority of supply across the entire market is deep in profit.
Glassnode has also reported a shift in its altcoin cycle signal toward an “altcoin season,” after Bitcoin captured most of the momentum during its August rally.
The two observations can coexist: altcoins may be rising now while many holders remain underwater after earlier declines.
For Bitcoin, the nearer question is whether the annual-average breakout can hold through a test of the $88,000-$90,000 range. CryptoQuant’s indicators favor the bulls, but a clear move through that supply zone would provide stronger evidence that buyers can carry the rally further.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
