Key Takeaways
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said crypto was showing signs of a bottom and predicted that the next bull market could be the industry’s biggest yet.
- Bitcoin Archive claimed a historically successful supply-in-loss signal could push Bitcoin to $92,000 by Sept. 9.
- Grayscale said Bitcoin could bottom in September or October, based on its four-year cycle.
Bitcoin’s prospects of returning to $92,000 and above have come back into focus after an on-chain profitability indicator moved into territory that has previously preceded price gains.
It comes as Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said an incoming bull run could be the biggest the industry has ever seen.
However, the renewed optimism follows Grayscale’s warning that Bitcoin may not reach a bottom until September or October.
Bitwise CIO Says Next Crypto Bull Market Could Be the Biggest Yet
Hougan said Bitcoin’s recent performance and improving sentiment suggested that conditions across the crypto market were beginning to change.
“Crypto is finally showing signs of a bottom,” he wrote in a Bitwise investment memo on Wednesday.
Hougan noted that Bitcoin had gained approximately 9% since the beginning of July. Despite the Nasdaq-100 falling by around 6% over the same period.
The Bitwise executive argued the next bull market could be driven by the growing integration of crypto and traditional finance.
Stablecoins, tokenized assets, round-the-clock trading, instant settlement, and institutional decentralized finance could form the foundations of the next cycle, according to Hougan.
He predicted that the cycle could be larger than previous crypto rallies because it would target the global financial system.
“I’m bullish on the majors—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, etc.—and on crypto equities,” Hougan said.
However, he identified two categories he believed were particularly well-positioned.
The first included crypto applications such as Hyperliquid, which generate revenue and use it to support their tokens.
Hougan also pointed to Uniswap, Aave, and Morpho as projects working to strengthen the connection between protocol usage and token value.
Bitcoin Growth Signal Points to $92,000 by Sept. 9
Bitcoin Archive based its price prediction on the percentage of Bitcoin supply currently being held at a loss.
“Bitcoin could hit $92k by Sept 9,” the account wrote.
“100% hit rate the last 6 times this indicator fired.”
Supply in loss estimates how much Bitcoin was last transferred on-chain at a price higher than its current market value.
For example, a coin last moved when Bitcoin traded at $80,000 would be classified as being held at an unrealized loss while BTC remains below that level.
When the percentage declines, it means a rising Bitcoin price has pushed more holders back into profit.
That can indicate that market stress is easing and that the recovery is spreading across a larger section of the supply.
The claimed historical hit rate should also be treated cautiously
Six previous signals represent a relatively small sample, while past performance does not guarantee that the latest occurrence will produce the same result.
To reach the target, Bitcoin’s price would need to add nearly $26,700 from approximately $65,300.
That would represent an unusually fast rally, although gains of that size are not unprecedented in the crypto market.
Grayscale Says Bitcoin Could Bottom in September or October
The bullish forecast comes after Grayscale outlined two possible paths for Bitcoin’s bear market.
Under the traditional four-year cycle framework, Bitcoin has generally reached a market bottom around 1 year after its previous peak. Approximately two and a half years after a halving.
Historical BTC bear markets have also produced average peak-to-trough declines of around 80%.
If that pattern repeats, Grayscale said the current downturn could continue until September or October.
Potentially producing further losses before a lasting recovery begins.
However, the asset manager does not consider the four-year cycle to be the most convincing framework for the current market.
Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl argued that Bitcoin was becoming a more mature macro asset, with its price increasingly influenced by economic growth, Federal Reserve policy, and real interest rates.
Under that scenario, “Bitcoin’s price may already have bottomed” if the US economy remains resilient and the Fed avoids further rate increases, Grayscale said in its bear-market analysis.
A rally to $92,000 by early September would strengthen the argument that Bitcoin’s bottom is already in.
However, a temporary recovery would not conclusively invalidate the four-year-cycle scenario.
Bitcoin has previously produced sharp relief rallies during longer downturns before falling to a final low.
Hougan Says Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million Within a Decade
Hougan has also argued that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next decade as it captures a larger share of the global store-of-value market.
The Bitwise CIO treats BTC as a competitor to gold, with its long-term valuation determined by the size of that market and the percentage of that market Bitcoin can command.
Bitwise estimates that gold and Bitcoin currently represent a combined store-of-value market worth nearly $38 trillion. BTC accounts for less than 4% of the total.
At its present size, Bitcoin would need to overtake gold and capture more than half of the market to support a price of $1 million per coin.
However, Hougan argued that the store-of-value market is likely to expand considerably over the next decade.
In an investor memo, he pointed to gold’s growth since the first US gold exchange-traded fund launched in 2004.
Its market value has risen from approximately $2.5 trillion to nearly $40 trillion, representing annualized growth of around 13%.
If the wider market maintains that pace, Hougan estimated that it could be worth roughly $121 trillion within 10 years. Bitcoin would then need to secure approximately 17% of the market to reach $1 million.
“There are still miles to go, but with these undercurrents, capturing one-sixth of the store-of-value market in 10 years doesn’t seem extreme,” Hougan said.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
