Key Takeaways
- HTX Research says Bitcoin’s next bull market depends on three factors.
- The firm argues Bitcoin now trades as a global liquidity asset.
- The report comes days after former Binance CFO Wei Zhou identified three similar catalysts.
Bitcoin’s next sustained bull market will require three specific changes, HTX Research said in a quarterly market outlook published on Thursday.
The prediction comes as Bitcoin’s price trades at around $61,957, according to CoinMarketCap, down over 50% from its all-time high.
Three Things That Could Drive the Next Bull Market
HTX Research said three developments will largely determine whether crypto markets recover during the third quarter.
The first is an easing in monetary conditions.
“The key macro variable is not a single meeting, but whether the Fed continues to defend a hawkish reaction function,” the report said.
It added that persistent inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer and continue limiting demand for risk assets.
Secondly, the report pointed to US Treasury liquidity.
Rather than quantitative tightening, HTX said investors should now focus on Treasury issuance, the Treasury General Account, and bank reserves.
It argued that these have become the key drivers of liquidity available to financial markets.
The third factor is regulation.
“Regulatory clarity is the largest policy variable in Q3,” the report said.
“If the CLARITY Act continues to advance, ETH, DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA should have higher beta to regulatory repricing than BTC.”
Bitcoin Now Trades Like a Global Liquidity Asset
Beyond its outlook, HTX argued that Bitcoin’s market behavior has fundamentally changed as institutional participation has increased.
The report said Bitcoin should no longer be viewed primarily as a crypto-native asset or geopolitical hedge, but increasingly as a macro asset whose performance reflects global liquidity conditions.
According to HTX, Bitcoin’s second-quarter decline was driven by tighter monetary policy and a stronger US dollar.
It also noted weaker spot ETF inflows and a slowdown in corporate treasury demand.
HTX also argued that investors have become more selective when valuing digital assets.
“The market is no longer willing to pay high valuations for narrative alone,” the report said.
It added that ecosystem growth must increasingly translate into fees, revenue, token burns, or other forms of value capture.
The research said this shift explains why Bitcoin outperformed many altcoins during the second quarter,
Former Binance CFO Outlined Three Bull Market Catalysts
HTX’s outlook comes days after former Binance Chief Financial Officer Wei Zhou outlined three developments he believes are needed before crypto enters another bull market.
In a post on X, Zhou said the next major rally would likely require:
- Google and Meta to launch blockchain networks for developers.
- The passage of the US CLARITY Act.
- Further easing of China’s restrictions on crypto activity.
Zhou also argued the market remains in a bear phase following October’s sharp selloff.
He cited heavy losses among large investors, lingering concerns over exchange infrastructure, and competition for capital from AI-related investments.
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Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
