$8 Trillion in Big Tech Earnings, Fed Decision and Inflation Data: Bitcoin's Next Big Test?
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Key Takeaways
The Federal Reserve’s Oct. 28 decision, followed by US inflation and GDP figures, could reshape expectations for interest rates and Bitcoin.
Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report earnings as investors question whether massive AI infrastructure spending can deliver sustainable returns.
Bitcoin’s recent weakness near $80,000 puts the spotlight on interest rates, institutional demand and whether crypto can withstand another technology-stock selloff.
Bitcoin faces a critical test during the week of Oct. 26, as major central bank decisions, US inflation data, and earnings from technology giants converge over the course of the week.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision Wednesday, followed by third-quarter US GDP and September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation figures Thursday.
Meanwhile, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon will report quarterly earnings, putting the artificial intelligence investment boom under scrutiny.
🚨 EVERYTHING THAT COULD MOVE THE MARKET IS HAPPENING IN THE SAME WEEK.
The Fed, Big Tech earnings, U.S. inflation data and the Bank of Japan are all about to make major announcements.
And with AI spending fears growing and inflation rising again, the timing couldn't be more… pic.twitter.com/Ad5x077rcT
The timing is particularly important for cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin recently slipped toward $79,100 after struggling to maintain the $80,000 level, while concerns about inflation and technology valuations have weakened investor confidence.
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Fed Decision: Could Another Rate Hike Push Bitcoin Lower?
The Federal Reserve’s Oct. 28 announcement is arguably the week’s most important scheduled event for Bitcoin.
Following September’s rate increase, the federal funds target range stands at 3.75% to 4.00%. Markets largely expect policymakers to hold rates unchanged.
According to CME FedWatch probabilities reported by MarketWatch on Oct. 26, traders assigned approximately a 9% probability to another quarter-point increase this week, rising to 73% for December.
🚨 THE FED'S OCTOBER OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED—AND MARKETS ARE NO LONGER COMFORTABLE.
CME FedWatch probabilities reveal a significant repricing of America's monetary policy outlook.
For October 28, markets assign:
60.7% probability to the 375–400 basis-point range.
That makes the Fed’s forward guidance potentially more influential than Wednesday’s decision itself.
Higher interest rates increase the appeal of interest-bearing assets while raising borrowing costs and tightening financial conditions. Bitcoin, which generates no contractual yield, can face pressure when investors demand greater compensation for holding riskier assets.
Coinbase Institutional’s Oct. 16 research supports this connection. It found Bitcoin had shown greater resilience than semiconductor stocks during recent AI-related selloffs but remained sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations.
The report identified the $80,000 to $82,000 region as important near-term support, with further downside potentially bringing the $72,000 to $74,500 area into focus.
$8 Trillion Tech Earnings Test the AI Trade
Wednesday brings earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft, followed by Amazon on Thursday.
Alphabet and Microsoft represent roughly $8 trillion in market value, making their results particularly important for the technology sector.
Investors will examine Microsoft’s Azure cloud growth, Alphabet’s advertising and cloud businesses, and Amazon’s AWS performance. But the bigger question concerns the returns generated by billions of dollars committed to AI infrastructure.
Reuters reported that disappointing results from Meta and Lam Research had already weakened technology stocks, raising concerns about whether AI spending can sustain elevated valuations.
The earnings calendar adds another dimension: approximately 542 companies valued above $2 billion are scheduled to report this week, with Wednesday and Thursday accounting for 73% of the market capitalization represented.
Strong results could restore confidence in growth-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, disappointing cloud growth or higher-than-expected capital expenditures could intensify selling pressure.
Bitcoin’s reaction is not guaranteed to mirror the Nasdaq. Coinbase’s research suggests its correlation with semiconductor stocks has weakened, indicating that monetary policy may currently matter more than AI-related equity movements.
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US Inflation, GDP and Bank of Japan Add to Bitcoin’s Risks
Thursday’s economic releases introduce another potential source of volatility.
According to Morningstar’s economic calendar, September headline PCE inflation is forecast at 3.6% annually, compared with 3.4% in August. Core PCE is expected at 3.1%, up from 3.0%.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has scheduled both PCE and third-quarter GDP figures for Oct. 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Higher-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of another Fed rate hike in December. Conversely, softer inflation could reduce pressure on Treasury yields and support risk assets.
GDP presents a more complicated picture. Strong growth may indicate economic resilience, but combined with persistent inflation, it could also justify keeping monetary policy restrictive.
International developments add another risk.
The Bank of Japan concludes its policy meeting Friday, Oct. 30, with its benchmark rate currently around 1.25%.
A surprise hawkish signal could strengthen the yen and encourage investors to unwind yen-funded carry trades, potentially reducing liquidity across global financial markets.
For Bitcoin, the central question is whether institutional demand can absorb another macroeconomic shock.
A combination of softer inflation, reassuring Fed guidance, and stronger technology earnings could support a recovery. However, persistent inflation, hawkish central banks, and disappointing AI results could deepen the selloff.
With several major announcements arriving within 48 hours, Bitcoin investors face a test of whether the cryptocurrency can maintain its footing as global financial conditions shift.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
