Key Takeaways
The current bullish cycle has been going on for over 800 days, more specifically since Bitcoin fell to a low of $15,479 in November 2022. The cycle has been unusual in several aspects, more notably the fact that Ethereum (ETH) has not reached a new all-time high yet and the Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) has been going up.
However, there are several altcoins that have increased over ten times since their lows, outperforming BTC in the process.
These altcoins all share some characteristics that suggest their bullish cycles might be over. The most prominent being a completed five-wave increase and bearish divergences in the long-term Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD).
While their bullish cycles are likely over, the altcoins are at different parts of their correction. Let’s look at their price movement closely and determine what shape will they take.
PEPE has been one of the standout performers of the current crypto cycle, increasing by over 14,000%. The upward movement culminated with an all-time high of $0.0000283 in December. Despite its previous strength, the PEPE price has fallen over 50% since, creating several successive bearish weekly candlesticks.
The decrease has been so swift that PEPE reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support level while creating only incremental bounces.
Tre are several signs that suggest that PEPE’s bullish cycle has ended. The most notable is the completed five-wave upward movement since March 2024. The sub-wave count is in black, confirming that wave five is over.
Technical indicators are also bearish. The RSI has been generating a bearish divergence since the top of wave three in April. A bearish divergence between waves three and five is often a decisive sign that a bearish trend reversal has started.
The only reading missing that would confirm the bearish trend has started is a bearish divergence in the MACD, which has yet to occur. Nevertheless, the RSI divergence combined with the MACD cross and the completed count should be sufficient to confirm that the bullish cycle has ended.
In any case, the correction will likely not be a straight arrow down. Rather, the PEPE price may be nearing the end of wave A in its A-B-C correction. So, a relief wave B toward $0.0000210 could follow, leading to another final decline toward the $0.0000090 support.
The second altcoin that might have finished its bullish cycle is Solana. SOL has been the best performing large-cap cryptocurrency and Layer-1 blockchain this cycle. Its outperformance is especially put in the spotlight when comparing its increase to that of Ethereum, who has struggled mightily. Since its lows, the SOL price has increased by 3,700% since its cycle low.
However, signs of weakness are materializing. The SOL price confirmed the fifth and final wave of its increase after breaking out from a symmetrical triangle in November. While the movement led to a new all-time high price of $295.98 in January 2025, Solana could not sustain it.
Rather, it created a long upper wick (black icon) and fell. The sub-wave count (black) also shows a completed a five-wave increase, likely concluding Solana’s cycle.
The high was made at two Fibonacci resistance levels that are often associated with tops. More specifically, it is made at the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four (black) and at the point where wave five has the same length as waves one and three combined.
Finally, both the RSI and MACD have generated bearish divergences (green) between the highs of wave three and five. To verify its bearish trend reversal, the SOL price has to close below the $200 horizontal area. This will confirm that the bearish trend has started.
The final altcoin that might have completed its bullish cycle is Raydium. The RAY price has increased by a massive 5,800% since its December 2022 lows. While RAY reached a high of $8.70, the price is still a long way from its all-time high of $17.80.
Similarly to PEPE and SOL, RAY has completed a five-wave increase (white) where both waves three and five extended. The sub-wave count is in black, suggesting that wave five has concluded.
Instead of reaching an important Fibonacci level, the RAY price high was made at the middle of an ascending parallel channel connecting the highs and lows of wave three and two, respectively. Elliott Wave rules dictate that wave five often ends at this specific level.
There is both a long- and a short-term bearish divergence in the RSI (green, dashed). While the MACD has not generated a bearish divergence in its signal line, the momentum bars have done so, a valid albeit weaker bearish sign.
A breakdown from the channel will confirm that RAY has started its correction that can take it to the next horizontal support at $1.50.
PEPE, SOL and x are three altcoins that have likely completed their bullish cycles. All three have shown finished five-wave increases with bearish divergences between waves three and five. The altcoins are at different parts of their corrections.
PEPE might have completed the first portion of the decline, while Solana and Raydium are just beginning their corrections. In any case, it seems unlikely that these three altcoins will reach new all-time highs in the current cycle.