Key Takeaways
Cardano struggled for most of 2024 but began a rally in November, increasing by 300% in less than a month. Even though ADA fell after its high, it remains above the previous breakout level and is testing it as support.
The successful launch of the Plomin hard fork has thrust ADA back into the spotlight.
So, the question is if this is the catalyst needed for ADA to begin a bullish rally and finally break its 2024 highs.
The Plomin hard fork will transition Cardano to fully decentralized governance. This means that ADA holders will vote on upgrades, treasury withdrawals, and governance proposals through delegated representatives (DReps).
The hard fork passed after 86% of the nodes upgraded to the new version on Jan. 23. After the successful execution on Jan. 29, Cardano is now a “self-sustaining network with on-chain voting and a treasury system—fully in the hands of the community.”
Plomin is the follow-up upgrade to the first part of the Chang hard fork. It will implement seven governance actions outlined in CIP-1694 . ADA holders can now submit these actions for a vote.
Its main feature is the full implementation of decentralized voting through DReps, which are now responsible for most major decisions concerning Cardano’s future.
The weekly time frame ADA chart shows that the price broke out from the $0.80 horizontal resistance area in November, reaching a high of $1.32 next month. While ADA has fallen since then, it retested the $0.80 horizontal area, confirming it as support.
Even though the ADA price failed to initiate an upward movement afterward, it still trades well above this support area and has created a higher low.
If the increase continues, the next long-term resistance will be at $1.67. This is both a horizontal and a Fibonacci retracement resistance level.
Technical indicators are mixed. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are above their bullish thresholds at 50 and 0, respectively, they are trending downward.
The daily time frame shows that ADA has traded inside a symmetrical triangle since its December highs. The price is approaching the end of the pattern, so a decisive movement is likely soon.
Even though the triangle is considered a neutral pattern, it transpires after an upward movement, making a breakout more likely.
Nevertheless, neither the RSI nor the MACD confirm the possibility of the breakout, casting doubt as to whether the ADA trend is bullish.
The wave count suggests that ADA has one final rally for this cycle. According to the count, the price is in wave four of a five-wave increase (white) that started in July 2023.
Wave four has taken the shape of a symmetrical triangle, so a breakout from it will confirm the beginning of wave five.
Wave three was roughly the same length as wave one, so wave five may extend. If it is 1.61 times the length of wave one, the ADA price will reach a high of $1.70.
This is very close to the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four. It also aligns with the previously outlined long-term resistance area.
After the five-wave increase is complete, ADA will likely begin a lengthy correction that retraces a portion of the entire movement that spanned for nearly two years.
The ADA price is trading above a long-term horizontal support area, creating a higher low inside a continuation pattern.
Cardano’s hard fork has also returned to the spotlight despite no immediate price reaction. If ADA breaks out, it can reach the next resistance at $1.65-$1.70.