Home / Analysis / Crypto / Solana (SOL) Price Recovers 8% But Struggles to Turn Bullish

Solana (SOL) Price Recovers 8% But Struggles to Turn Bullish

Published
Nikola Lazic
Published
By Nikola Lazic
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • Descending triangle breakout forming
  • Fibonacci resistance at $246.54 (0.382 level)
  • Bullish RSI divergence supports a reversal

Solana (SOL) reached its all-time high of $294 on Jan. 19, followed by a corrective phase, forming a descending triangle structure.

The 8% gain from Jan 27 indicates a possible reversal, but a breakout from the descending triangle will provide the best confirmation. The market is at a pivotal point, with the current price action at around $240.

SOL Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart displays a five-wave Elliott Wave impulsive rally, with Wave 5 peaking at $294 on Jan. 19 before entering a corrective ABC structure.

The downward move established a descending triangle pattern, with Wave C nearing completion.

The current price is around $239 after an 8% recovery from its recent low of $221, showing a breakout attempt. 

SOL price analysis
SOLUSD at triangle resistance | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

The 0.382 retracement at $246 has acted as an initial barrier, with further resistance at $264 (0.236 level).

Meanwhile, critical support is established at $231 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement), followed by $216 (0.618 level), aligning with previous price reactions.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart shows a bullish divergence, reinforcing a potential shift in momentum.

The oversold RSI reading during the final leg of Wave C suggests buyer interest near key support zones.

SOL Price Prediction

The one-hour chart provides a detailed view of the potential reversal structure. Elliott Wave analysis suggests that SOL has been on a five-wave decline since its previous interaction with the triangle’s resistance on Jan 24.

Its Jan. 27 support interaction with the triangle’s support could have marked the conclusion of the five-wave impulse, or we still have one lower low. 

SOL price prediction
SOLUSD breakout or rejection next | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

A breakout above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $246 would confirm a bullish continuation, targeting $264 (0.236 Fibonacci) as the next major resistance.

Short-term retracements may occur, with potential pullbacks to $231 (0.5 level) acting as a retest of previous resistance-turned-support.

If SOL sustains momentum above $246, a measured move projection suggests a rally toward $264, possibly extending toward previous highs near $294.

However, failure to break the triangle convincingly may lead to a retest of $216 (0.618 level), invalidating the bullish thesis.

The RSI on the lower timeframe supports a bullish case, as an upward crossover from oversold conditions signals increasing buying pressure.

A breakout with strong volume would confirm further upside potential.

Key Levels to Watch

  • Immediate Resistance: $246.54 (0.382 Fibonacci level)
  • Key Support: $231.72 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement)
  • Critical Support: $216.90 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement)
  • Short-Term Target: Above $290 if bullish momentum sustains
  • Invalidation Zone: Below $216.90, indicating further downside
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Was this Article helpful? Yes No

Nikola Lazic

Nikola Lazic is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor working in the industry since 2017. He holds a bachelor's degree in Sociology, which enables him to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently his preferred analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory in combination with price action analysis. Combining his experience in trading and investing with knowledge in content writing he strives to bring the most accurate and actionable information. Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, On-chain metrics, Research reports.
See more