Can the TRUMP Memecoin Regain Its Footing? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Official Trump (TRUMP) has fallen by 65% since its all-time high.
The TRUMP price trades inside a descending parallel channel pattern.
Will TRUMP ever revisit its previous highs, or is it destined for lower prices?
The TRUMP memecoin debuted with much fanfare, increasing rapidly after its launch, securing listing on several well-known centralized exchanges (CEX), and reaching the top 20 largest cryptocurrencies based on their market capitalizations.
However, the momentum did not last. The TRUMP price has fallen sharply since the week of its launch, losing 65% of its value and dropping to the 26th spot based on its market capitalization rankings. TRUMP trades inside a critical horizontal support level, a breakdown below which could plunge the memecoin to even lower prices.
With TRUMP at a crossroads, the key question is whether the market can reclaim its former highs or if the sell-off is just starting.
The TRUMP price has decreased rapidly since its all-time high of $79.34 on Jan. 19. The downward movement culminated with a low of $24.62 on Jan. 27, taking the TRUMP price to the $26 horizontal support area.
The downward movement was initially swift but has become more gradual in the past 10 days, following the confines of a descending parallel channel.
TRUMP trades just above the $26 area and the channel’s midline. A breakout from the channel can take the price to its resistance trend line at $38, while a breakdown could cause a drop toward the support at $20.
Technical indicators are mixed. The Relative Strength index (RSI) is at 50, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is at 0, both signs of a bearish trend.
The wave count gives a bearish TRUMP prediction since the original upward movement is a three-wave A-B-C structure (white). This suggests that the trend is bearish.
Since there is a lack of price history, the TRUMP trend cannot be accurately determined. Because of the wave count and ongoing pattern, the most likely outlook would be more consolidation inside the descending parallel channel before the trend picks up in one or the other direction, based on whether TRUMP breaks out or down from the channel.
Decrease in Activity
Despite the decrease in price, large wallets are not selling tokens. The TRUMP wallet, which holds 80% of the total supply, has not sold any tokens yet. However, there is a discernible decline in retail interest.
This can be seen in Moonshot fees generated by TRUMP. Between Jan. 18 and 20, the average daily fees were over $1 million, culminating at over $3 million on Jan. 19.
On Jan. 28, they were roughly $70,000. The trading fee share of Moonshot revenue has also fallen precipitously.
An analysis of CEX and DEX transactions also shows a considerable decline, from over 100,000 hourly transactions on Solana DEXes alone to less than 10,000.
Uncertain TRUMP Trend
The TRUMP price has fallen significantly since its all-time high on Jan. 19. On-chain data shows a lack of interest in the memecoin, even though large wallets have not started to sell yet.
Whether the price breaks out or down from its descending channel can determine the future trend’s direction.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
