Can Altseason Finally Start in 2025? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
The Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) is creating a lower high.
The Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) trades above support.
Can ALTCAP break out and reach a new all-time high?
Bitcoin’s Dominance Rate topped in November 2024, increasing optimism for the beginning of a significant altcoin season.
However, the relief offered for altcoins was inconsequential since BTCD fell for only three weeks before bouncing. Even though BTCD has created a lower high, it has not started a precipitous fall like previous cycles.
While there was a minor altseason in 2024, it was insignificant relative to previous crypto cycles since altcoins barely outperformed Bitcoin.
Additionally, the altcoin market cap has not yet reached its all-time high.
Can these two charts converge, leading to a BTCD drop and ALTCAP breakout? Let’s find out.
The Bitcoin Dominance Rate has increased since September 2022, creating a five-wave upward movement that led to a high of 61.53% in November 2024.
The high was made just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level, a likely area for a top. The BTCD briefly moved above this level before falling back below it.
Shortly after the high, the BTCD broke down from an ascending wedge pattern that had existed for over a year. The ascending wedge was likely created by an ending diagonal in wave five.
The sub-wave count fits with this possibility, suggesting the entire upward movement is over.
Also, technical indicators give a bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have created bearish divergences (green), leading to the breakdown.
The RSI fell below 50, while the MACD made a bearish cross. The previous time this happened (white) marked the beginning of last cycle’s altcoin season.
The Altcoin market cap gives some mixed signals but is still leaning bullish.
Firstly, the ALTCAP has not yet reached a new all-time high. It would be unusual for the cycle to end without a new all-time high.
Secondly, the price still trades above the primary horizontal support at $1.25 trillion, where it is attempting to begin another upward movement.
Finally, the wave count suggests another increase left until the upward movement is over. While ALTCAP is in wave five (white), it has not yet started sub-wave five (black).
The ensuing rally has a target between $2.14 and $2.19 trillion, created by the 2.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four and by giving wave five the same length as waves one and three combined.
On the other hand, a bearish divergence is developing in the RSI and MACD (green), something that often precedes downward movements. In fact, the last cycle ended after one such divergence.
The short-term count also predicts more consolidation before an eventual breakout. According to the count, the altcoin market cap is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle for sub-wave four before it eventually breaks out.
These triangles are the most common pattern in wave four.
Once ALTCAP breaks out from the triangle, the fifth and final portion of the upward movement will begin.
Conversely, a decisive close below the triangle’s support trend line and the $1.25 trillion support area will invalidate the count, suggesting the cycle top is in.
Altcoin Season Delayed
The end of 2024 marked the beginning of the Altcoin season since the BTCD had seemingly reached its cycle top.
At the same time, BTCD has fallen since the decline has not been as significant as predicted. Additionally, the altcoin market cap has not reached a new all-time high yet; it is consolidating below its 2024 high.
A BTCD decline and an ALTCAP breakout must happen for the altseason to begin in 2025.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
