Raydium (RAY) Corrects After Yearly Peak but Another Upside Move Likely

Key Takeaways

• RAY has fallen since its yearly high on Nov. 22.
• The price is in the fifth and final wave of its increase.
• How long until RAY reaches its market cycle top?

Raydium (RAY) has increased parabolically in the last 14 months due to increased Decentralized Exchange (DEX) activity.

Raydium is the leading DEX in the Solana blockchain and has even surpassed Uniswap  in volume, likely due to the memecoin frenzy in Solana.

The price has increased nearly 3,000% since its cycle low, culminating with a high of $6.50 in November 2024.

However, RAY has fallen by 28% since its highs. Is this the beginning of the downward trend or just a temporary dip that will be retraced quickly? Let’s find out.

RAY Falls After Yearly High

The weekly time frame RAY chart shows that the price has increased by nearly 3,000% since October 2023.

The upward movement caused a breakout from the $2.50 horizontal resistance area, leading to a new yearly high of $6.50 on Nov. 22.

The RAY price has fallen slightly since but still trades well above the $2.50 horizontal area.

However, there is no support until then, which makes it possible for RAY to return and validate it.

Additionally, technical indicators show weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is decreasing and fell below 70 (black circle), a sign of a weakening trend.

Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has created several lower momentum bars, a sign of weakening momentum.

The wave count also shows weakness. The most likely count suggests the RAY price is in the fifth and final wave of its upward movement that started in December 2022 (white).

Wave four developed into a symmetrical triangle, confirming the validity of the count.

Wave three extended (black), and wave five is already longer than wave one. So, the entire upward move may have ended.

Since the RSI and MACD do not show a bearish divergence, examining a lower time frame can help determine whether this is the case.

Another High Awaits?

While the weekly time frame chart shows bearish signs, the daily chart suggests one more high before the price reaches the top.

In the longer-term wave five contexts, the RAY price likely has one more increase before reaching its apex.

The count shows that RAY has completed wave four or is close to doing so, as evidenced by the symmetrical triangle pattern.

Furthermore, the price validated the $4.70 horizontal support area and created a double bottom alongside the triangle’s support trend line and the horizontal support area.

If the RAY price breaks out from the triangle, the next target will be $8.17, created by the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of sub-wave four.

On the other hand, a breakdown from the triangle puts the entire upward movement at risk, suggesting that the local top is in place.

RAY Price Nearing Top

The RAY price has fallen since its yearly high and shows weakness in high time frames.

However, the short-term time frame suggests the price will begin another upward movement, reaching a high above $8 before the top of the market cycle.