Has RAY Reached a Local Top? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
RAY has fallen since its yearly high on Nov. 22.
The price is in the fifth and final wave of its increase.
How long until RAY reaches its market cycle top?
Raydium (RAY) has increased parabolically in the last 14 months due to increased Decentralized Exchange (DEX) activity.
Raydium is the leading DEX in the Solana blockchain and has even surpassed Uniswap in volume, likely due to the memecoin frenzy in Solana.
The price has increased nearly 3,000% since its cycle low, culminating with a high of $6.50 in November 2024.
However, RAY has fallen by 28% since its highs. Is this the beginning of the downward trend or just a temporary dip that will be retraced quickly? Let’s find out.
Additionally, technical indicators show weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is decreasing and fell below 70 (black circle), a sign of a weakening trend.
Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has created several lower momentum bars, a sign of weakening momentum.
The wave count also shows weakness. The most likely count suggests the RAY price is in the fifth and final wave of its upward movement that started in December 2022 (white).
Wave four developed into a symmetrical triangle, confirming the validity of the count.
Wave three extended (black), and wave five is already longer than wave one. So, the entire upward move may have ended.
Since the RSI and MACD do not show a bearish divergence, examining a lower time frame can help determine whether this is the case.
Another High Awaits?
While the weekly time frame chart shows bearish signs, the daily chart suggests one more high before the price reaches the top.
In the longer-term wave five contexts, the RAY price likely has one more increase before reaching its apex.
The count shows that RAY has completed wave four or is close to doing so, as evidenced by the symmetrical triangle pattern.
Furthermore, the price validated the $4.70 horizontal support area and created a double bottom alongside the triangle’s support trend line and the horizontal support area.
If the RAY price breaks out from the triangle, the next target will be $8.17, created by the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of sub-wave four.
On the other hand, a breakdown from the triangle puts the entire upward movement at risk, suggesting that the local top is in place.
RAY Price Nearing Top
The RAY price has fallen since its yearly high and shows weakness in high time frames.
However, the short-term time frame suggests the price will begin another upward movement, reaching a high above $8 before the top of the market cycle.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
