Veteran analysts warn Bitcoin could face major downside, with $10,000 risk scenarios and historical charts signaling up to 80% cycle declines. | Credit: CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
The Crypto Market Cap (TOTALCAP) fell another 5% this week.
Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $90,000 for the first time since April.
Market sentiment is grim, but Cameron Winklevoss asserts the bottom is in.
The crypto market is crashing once again, leaving traders and investors searching for answers after another sharp drop.
With TOTALCAP dropping another 5 percent and Bitcoin plunging below $90,000 for the first time since April, sentiment has deteriorated into despair.
As the charts flash warning signs, the market waits to see whether this is truly the beginning of a new bear cycle.
Let’s examine some reasons why the crypto market is down today.
Is Crypto in a Bear Market?
The crypto market has crashed since its all-time high price of $4.27 trillion in October.
Initially, the crypto market rebounded above the $3.60 trillion area and a diagonal support trendline from an ascending wedge.
The breakdown last week confirmed that the crypto market is in the early stages of a much larger crash that will likely lead to new lows in the future.
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Today, the crypto market is down again, but is approaching the first critical support level at $2.92 trillion, which is created by the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement support level.
Secondly, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) created bearish divergences (indicated by the orange lines).
Finally, the indicators have now crashed below 50 and 0, respectively, confirming the bear market.
Therefore, the crypto market is likely to remain stagnant for the foreseeable future, despite the possibility of a short-term bounce at the 0.382 or 0.5 Fibonacci retracement support levels.
Will Bitcoin Crash?
The Bitcoin price movement echoes that of the rest of the crypto market. It provides clear bearish signals that have previously signaled the start of a bear market.
More specifically, the Bitcoin price declined last week, falling below the 50-week moving average (MA) for the first time during this bull market cycle.
In the previous cycle, Bitcoin experienced the same crash in January 2022. It marked the beginning of the bear market, causing the price to drop by another 66%.
The bearish signal was created not only by the price decrease below the MA, but also by the bearish RSI and MACD readings.
Despite these bearish signals, Cameron Winklevoss, the Co-Founder of the Gemini exchange and one of the earliest Bitcoin bulls, believes the bottom is in, stating:
This is the last time you’ll ever be able to buy Bitcoin below $90k!
While Crypto X is full of traders posting screenshots of their massive profits, that is not always the case.
More specifically, some large accounts have been significantly impacted by the dip and are now holding at a substantial loss.
CryptoMichNL has been infamous for holding altcoins. His portfolio is already down 70%, though he is adamant that the sentiment will change soon.
The primary reason that I’m still standing with my #Altcoin portfolio is that I avoid leverage.
Yes, the #Altcoin portfolio is down 70%; however, in 1 month of sentiment change, and we swing it back up in profit.
Similarly, Zeneca has reported substantial losses as the altcoin market crashed. Even though he was profitable earlier in the cycle, his recent trades have resulted in mounting losses.
Conviction bets have bled out, and even my “safer” conviction bets have struggled (ETH ). The few rotations and plays I have made have been late and wrong. BTC, HYPE, TAO, and Stables have protected my downside a bit and been my silver linings this account
Among leverage traders, Machibigbrother is the biggest loser, having already lost nearly $20 million after previously gaining more than $40 million in September 2025.
His next long position is in Ethereum with a liquidation of $2,963.
Bottom Remains Elusive
For now, the charts paint a clear picture of a market losing strength, even as Cameron Winklevoss insists the Bitcoin bottom is in place.
Traders across the spectrum are feeling the pain, from conviction holders to aggressive leverage players.
Nevertheless, the technical analysis is precise and suggests the crash will worsen in the weeks ahead.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
