Here's Why the Crypto Market is Down | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
The Total Crypto Market Cap (TOTALCAP) is closing below horizontal support.
The Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) has closed below its horizontal support.
Is the market cycle over, or can altcoins create another higher high this year?
The cryptocurrency market is showing bearish signs as key support levels risk giving way.
After an explosive run earlier this year, both TOTALCAP and ALTCAP signal weakness with fresh breakdowns.
Momentum indicators suggest bearishness, and the market may have already reached its peak.
The big question is: has the crypto bear market begun, or is there still room for one last push higher?
Is the Crypto Bull Market Over
TOTALCAP has fallen since reaching its all-time high of $4.27 trillion in October.
The crypto market is down by 15% and risks breaking down from the $3.60 trillion horizontal area.
This area is critical since it acted as resistance throughout the year until the price finally broke out in June.
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Momentum indicators give extremely bearish readings. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have created bearish divergences in both the long-term (black) and short-term (orange) trends.
The MACD has also made a bearish cross (black circle), another sign of a bearish trend.
So, the weekly time frame price action suggests a breakdown is the most likely future outlook, taking the crypto market down to new lows.
The wave count agrees, since it shows that TOTALCAP is in the fifth and final wave of the current bull cycle.
While the crypto market may create a slightly higher high before crashing, it is likely in an ending diagonal, so a decisive breakdown is likely soon.
Moreover, a clearly defined five-wave upward movement (green) with an extended third wave (black) is visible, indicating that the upward movement has ended.
Finally, an ascending parallel channel contains the altcoin market cap movement.
Its inability to move to the channel’s resistance trend line and subsequent breakdown below the midline are all signs that the trend is bearish.
If the decline continues, the closest support level will be the channel’s trend line, which is $1.2 trillion.
Cycle May Be Over
The crypto market sentiment is pessimistic, with TOTALCAP holding onto critical support and ALTCAP already confirming a bearish breakdown.
Technicals and the wave count point toward the end of the current cycle, with new lows likely on the horizon.
While a short-term bounce or a marginal new high remains possible, the structure suggests a deeper correction.
The crypto market overview suggests the bull market may be over for now.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
