Stellar (XLM) Coin 17% Rally Could End Six-Month Losing Streak

Key Takeaways

The XLM/USD monthly chart shows that the coin is ready to follow a historical pattern.
On-chain data shows postive funding rate and negative sentiment, which seems bullish.
XLM has risen above the upper trendline of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart.

Stellar (XLM) has been bleeding quietly for six months. Month after month, XLM’s price printed red.

Bulls watched the altcoin slide from a $0.52 July 2025 peak down through $0.40, then $0.30, and finally $0.21, before settling at $0.14, the support level it spent most of February.

For context, the Stellar coin kick-started 2026 with strong bullish support, jumping to $0.25 January.

Later on, it retreated to $0.14 in February as sentiment turned mostly bearish. However, that February flush may have been the final shakeout.

Month-to-Date (MTD), XLM’s price has outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). By the look of things, the altcoin does not seem ready to give up these gains.

XLM Historical Price Analysis Hints At Rally

At the time of writing, the current Stellar coin price sits around $0.17.

Its circulating supply stands at 33 billion XLM, with a market cap of approximately $5.2 billion, placing it around number 19 in the global crypto rankings.

Looking at the monthly chart, the macro picture stretching back to 2018 is setting up one of the most historically consistent patterns.

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Macro Events Support the Bullish Thesis

From a fundamental perspective, other factors have also played a role in the XLM price rally.

For instance, On March 20, the SEC and CFTC jointly designated XLM as a digital commodity, removing the longstanding overhang of a potential securities classification that had kept institutions on the sidelines.
The same day, Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, launched a $100 million tokenized fund directly on the Stellar network.
Zebec simultaneously deployed real-time USDC payroll services on Stellar, further expanding its global payments utility.

Given that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched regulated XLM futures in February, everything seems in place for the Stellar coin to move past $0.20.

XLM Bulls Seem Ready for More

On the on-chain side, the derivatives market is sending a clear bullish signal.

According to the sentiment below, the price and weighted sentiment combination tell a compelling story.

First, the funding rates. Deep red bars dominated February and early March, meaning short sellers were paying longs.

That changed around March 10. Funding has since flipped positive, now sitting at +0.01%. Positive funding confirms leveraged bulls are paying to hold positions, expressing genuine conviction that XLM’s price will trade higher.

Crucially, though, the rate isn’t extreme, meaning the long side isn’t dangerously overcrowded yet.

Next, the weighted sentiment. Despite XLM surging from $0.14 to $0.18 in just days, sentiment reads just -0.29.

Bull runs typically end when sentiment spikes excessively, and latecomers pile in simultaneously.

That hasn’t happened here. The market remains largely indifferent.

Thus, this is exactly the psychological condition that allows rallies to extend further than most expect.

XLM coin price on-chain analysis — XLM Funding Rate and Weighted Sentiment | Credit: Santiment

Both signals point in the same direction. Bulls are positioned with conviction, but the trade isn’t crowded.

If the trend persists, then XLM’s price has more room to run before sentiment becomes a warning sign.

XLM Price Forecast: Legitimate Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

On the daily chart, the technical structure of the XLM/USD pair confirms this is far more than a routine bounce.

A symmetrical triangle formed throughout February and March, compressing the Stellar coin price between converging trendlines as bulls and bears fought to exhaustion.

That standoff has now been resolved in favor of the upward position. Notably, XLM’s price broke above the upper boundary, suggesting that the rally could extend beyond current levels.

Two RSI bullish divergence signals fired during the triangle’s formation, with each flagging that downside momentum was quietly fading even as price grinded sideways.

The RSI has since surged to 61.85, with room to rise before reaching overbought levels.

Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reads +0.09 — the first sustained positive reading in months. This indicates that capital is flowing back into XLM, and the timing aligns perfectly with the breakout candle.

Should this trend persist, the short-term target could be near the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.21.

Beyond that, the 0.786 level at $0.23 represents the next meaningful resistance.

Stellar coin XLM price analysis — XLM/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

However, the immediate priority for bulls is holding $0.1643 (the 0.236 Fibonacci level) as support on any pullback.

Losing it would invalidate the breakout. In that scenario, XLM’s price might slide below the lower trendline of the symmetrical triangle and trade below $0.15.

CLARITY Act Has a Role to Play

This is where Stellar’s story gets genuinely high-stakes. The CLARITY Act is approaching a Senate decision point, and XLM stands directly in its path — for better or worse.

If the bill passes, the impact on XLM is significant and immediate. XLM benefits directly from the CLARITY Act because commodity classification ends the SEC enforcement overhang, and a grandfather clause would treat XLM as a commodity tied to spot ETFs listed before January 1, 2026.

In a CLARITY Act passage scenario, $0.30 becomes the next major target as institutional flows begin.

If the bill fails or stalls past May, the picture changes sharply. Galaxy Digital warns that if the bill does not pass the committee by the end of April, it will likely be delayed until after the 2026 midterm election.

XLM, without the ETF pathway and without confirmed commodity status being codified in law, risks sliding back toward the $0.15 support zone, erasing much of March’s hard-won gains

Stellar (XLM) Price on Track for First Green Month Since September 2025 as Bulls Bet Big