Binary CDD shows long-term holders distributing into strength.
Short-term holders are capitulating, suggesting a potential accumulation phase.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has returned above $85,000 again after last week’s scare. However, analysis of the flagship cryptocurrency shows that it is not yet out of the woods.
At press time, Bitcoin’s price wobbles around $86,574. Technical indicators reveal that another notable correction might not be an option.
However, a significant recovery seems very far off at the same time. Here is why.
Bitcoin Tries to Stop Losses
When we examine the weekly chart, we see Bitcoin’s price previously carved out higher lows, effectively building a strong support line.
However, the momentum has shifted. Over the past four weeks, the cryptocurrency has printed only red candlesticks.
Although it briefly rose above the $85,000 level, the price remains below that crucial support line.
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Despite the uncertain trend, some analysts still expect the BTC price to hold above the $80,000 level. One of the most notable voices is Michaël van de Poppe.
Van de Poppe believes Bitcoin could soon make a move upward, potentially pushing toward the $95,000 mark.
“It’s very likely that BTC will stabilize and consolidate around this area. Preferably I’d like to see a test at the $85,500 area to close the CME gap and then towards the 20-Day MA at $95,000,” The analyst wrote on X.
However, on-chain metrics tell a different story. For example, the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has fallen below 0.3.
On-Chain Metrics Divided
As shown in the chart, three distinct upward spikes align perfectly with previous cycle highs.
These surges signal that experienced holders were quietly offloading coins as the market strengthened, while retail participation accelerated.
Each spike marked a local or macro top, confirming that dormant supply was reactivated and sold at premium prices.
This behavior indicates that long-term holders began taking profits well before the broader market started to decline. indicating distribution
Meanwhile, short-term holders have been capitulating at an unusually aggressive pace.
While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, the flushing out of weak hands combined with steady absorption in the lower accumulation zone suggests the market may be shifting into an early accumulation phase.
If Bitcoin’s price can continue defending the $80,000 to $83,000 realized-demand region, it could avoid another breakdown.
BTC Price Prediction
As shown below, Bitcoin’s price recently bounced off the horizontal support on the daily chart. However, it remains trapped inside a descending triangle, signaling continued compression in market structure.
Moreover, the Awesome Oscillator currently sits in negative territory, and the BTC price has dropped well below the Ichimoku Cloud. Both indicators reinforce the bearish bias.
If these conditions persist, Bitcoin’s price risks breaking below the $83,833 support level. A breakdown of that magnitude could trigger a deeper correction toward $80,528.
However, rising buying pressure could invalidate this bearish setup. In that scenario, BTC may reclaim momentum, break above the resistance line, and potentially climb toward $91,326.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
