Bitcoin Price Outlook: Why the $100K Rebound May Take Longer Than Expected

Key Takeaways

• BTC bounced back above $85,000 for the first time since April 2, sparking renewed hopes of a rally toward $100,000.
• The SSR has climbed to 14.42, suggesting weak stablecoin buying power — a bearish signal that could limit BTC’s upside.
• While BTC broke above resistance and the 200 EMA, the CMF hints at consolidation between $78,000 and $90,000.
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Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has responded positively to improving macroeconomic conditions, reclaiming the $85,000 level for the first time since April 2. This rebound follows a volatile period during which BTC briefly dipped below $80,000.

In light of the recovery, renewed optimism has sparked fresh calls for a potential rally toward the $100,000 mark. Despite the bullish sentiment, it does not appear that BTC will see a quick return above $100,000. Here is why.

Bitcoin Bounce to Face Setback

One metric showing that Bitcoin’s price could face difficulties in retesting $100,000 is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR). The SSR is a key on-chain metric that measures the buying power of stablecoins relative to Bitcoin.

A drop in the SSR reading indicates high buying power and more bullish potential. Conversely, an increase in the SSR indicates low stablecoin supply and weak buying power.

According to CryptoQuat data, the Bitcoin SSR has risen to 14.42. BTC could struggle to see a notable price increase if this trend continues, as the high reading indicates low buying pressure.

Resistance Near $97K

Apart from this SSR, the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) is another indicator that Bitcoin’s price might continue to wobble close to $85,000.

The IOMAP is an on-chain metric that shows how many addresses are profitable (in the money) or unprofitable (out of the money) based on their buying price compared to the current price of a crypto asset.

It also tells you where support or resistance might form. The big “in the money” zones below signifie strong support.

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On the other hand, higher volume “out of the money” zones above equal possible resistance. According to IntoTheBlock, the major resistance for Bitcoin’s price lies between $96,155 and $98,719.

At this price range, 1.48 million addresses have 1.19 million in unrealized losses. Therefore, if Bitcoin’s price tries to approach this range, it could face a sell wall that could push it back.

BTC Price Analysis: Consolidation Next

Based on the daily chart, CCN observed that Bitcoin’s price had its first successful breakout this month. The daily chart shows that the coin has been trading below a falling trendline since January.

In this year’s first month, it faced rejection at $106,364. By February, it struggled to breach the resistance at $99,269.

March also saw it struggle to rise above the $88,757 roadblock. But today, BTC has broken above the $83,564 resistance. In line with this, the price has also risen above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to confirm the uptrend.

However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has reversed the trend, indicating that buying pressure is stalling. If this remains the same, Bitcoin’s price might keep trading between $78,208 and $90,137 in the short term.

But if buying pressure increases, this target could be higher. BTC might rally to $98,629 in that scenario, near the 0.786 Fibonacci level.

If the broader market conditions improve, the coin could hit a new all-time high around $109,447. On the contrary, if BTC falls below the 200 EMA, the prediction might be invalidated, and BTC could decline toward $70,828.