Can This Week's Fed Meeting Propel Bitcoin to a New All-TIme High? | Credit: Derek Fenech
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin (BTC) prevented a breakdown from the $108,000 horizontal area.
Bitcoin trades 10% below its all-time high price of $126,272.
If the Fed cuts rates again, will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high this week?
The Bitcoin price surged during the weekend after the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) undershot its expectations by increasing 0.3% month-to-month (MoM) rather than the expected 0.4%.
The lower CPI has increased confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 25 bps on its Oct. 29 meeting, another positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s price.
With Bitcoin trading 10% below its all-time high price, the main question is whether these catalysts are enough to propel BTC to new highs.
Bitcoin Prevents Breakdown
Bitcoin’s technical analysis shows the price has fallen since its all-time high at the start of October.
Despite its decline, the outlook is not hopeless, since the Bitcoin price bounced at the $108,000 horizontal area and prevented a breakdown.
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Bitcoin created three long lower wicks (green icon) in consecutive weeks, confirming the area as support.
The $108,000 area is currently the most important horizontal level in Bitcoin’s chart, since the price has used it as both support and resistance since the end of 2024.
As a result, the Bitcoin prediction could depend on whether the price trades above or below this level, and it is currently bullish.
While the price chart does not trigger a warning, momentum indicators do. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) both generated bearish divergence (orange).
Divergences in such a long-term time frame are rare and often lead to bearish trend reversals.
In any case, the Bitcoin price has not yet closed below the $108,000 area, so the prediction is not considered bearish until that happens.
Bitcoin’s Technical Analysis
Zooming in on the shorter-term price technical analysis reveals two potential paths for the future Bitcoin trend.
The bullish count suggests that Bitcoin’s price has completed an irregular, flat A-B-C correction (red).
In this possibility, Bitcoin’s correction ended on Oct. 17, and the price has begun an upward movement to new highs and is currently in wave three.
If this is the correct count, the BTC price will soon undergo a parabolic rally as part of wave three, surging to a new all-time high.
Waves A and C nearly have the same length, and the BTC price trades inside the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance area.
So, this week’s movement could shape the trend for the rest of the year.
The counts predict opposed views for the rest of the year, so one will get invalidated this week, revealing which is the correct prediction.
Rate Cuts Could Define Bitcoin Trend
Bitcoin’s price action this week could be pivotal. If the Fed follows through with another rate cut and BTC stays above the $108,000 support, momentum could shift sharply toward new highs.
But with bearish divergences flashing on key indicators, a failed breakout might signal the start of a deeper correction.
One way or another, Bitcoin’s next move will likely determine the outlook for the rest of 2025.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
