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Benjamin Cowen Spots Weakness in ETH/BTC Pairing — Ethereum Could Lose 38% To Bitcoin Until June

Last Updated April 18, 2024 12:27 PM
Nikola Lazic
Last Updated April 18, 2024 12:27 PM
By Nikola Lazic
Verified by Peter Henn

Key Takeaways

  • The ETH/BTC trading pair could reach a low this summer, according to analyst Benjamin Cowen.
  • Whether the pair can recover depends on if the United States Federal Reserve eases its monetary policies.
  • The relative value of Ethereum to Bitcoin could drop 38% over the coming months.

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen recently shared a pessimistic outlook on Ethereum (ETH) compared to Bitcoin (BTC). Cowen  predicted that the value of Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) could decline further. 

He believes the ETH/BTC ratio will hit its lowest this summer. While Ethereum’s value in US Dollars may continue to decrease slightly longer, a turnaround could occur later this year. Then, Cowen expects the United States Federal Reserve to ease monetary policies, leading to a bullish phase for ETH/BTC. 

ETH/BTC Shows Weakness 

Currently, ETH/BTC stands at 0.04869 BTC, or $3,070. This means a breakout took place below its highly significant horizontal pivot of 0.05, which ETH has been above since May 6, 2021.

Daily chart

As such, this is a lower low compared to mid-June of 2022. At that time, ETH/BTC tested this level and made a bounce. Even though a recovery followed, it has stayed below the descending resistance since September 10, 2022. 

The downward pressure finally reached the horizontal level, breaking it and signaling Ethereum could go down further against Bitcoin. Cowen now warns of a 38% decrease. This is because the next significant support point for the ETH/BTC pair is at its horizontal support zone, beginning at 0.03. 

Cowen speculates the earliest ETH/BTC could bottom is mid-June, but this depends on the Federal Reserve’s fiscal decisions.

ETH Price Analysis 

On March 11, Ethereum surpassed the $4,000 threshold, reaching a peak of approximately $4,100, the zenith of its most recent upward trend. However, by March 20, it had declined to $3,062. A rebound followed, pushing Ethereum’s price to $3,730 by April 8, but it was a reactionary move, sending ETH lower than before. 

Daily chart

On April 13, Ethereum‘s price dropped to $2,840 at the 0.786 Fibonacci extension level. As indicated by the wave analysis and the daily chart RSI, it could continue slightly lower to $2,750, the same length as the previous descending move. 

This drop should complete the ABC correction as wave four of a five-wave impulse that started in mid-October 2023. As such, there is a potential for one more push to the upside before it ends, and we see an even higher degree of wave four developing. 


Per our projection, ETH doesn’t have the potential to make a new all-time high in its next upward turn. Instead, it will most likely go into a lasting consolidation. This could correlate with what Benjamin Cowen pointed out regarding ETH/BTC. 

Ethereum doesn’t have to lose value but can stay sideways while Bitcoin’s price increases, effectively losing value to BTC and making a downtrend in the ETH/BTC trading pair. 


Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.


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