Tom Lee’s $2,500 Ethereum Price Prediction Meets Fusaka Upgrade Timing: What Investors Should Know Before 2026.
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Key Takeaways
ETH briefly dropped under $3,000, but a key metric indicates a rebound.
A low MVRV ratio indicates Ethereum’s price is far from the market top.
Descending triangle persists, but support at $3,028 could revive the uptrend.
Earlier today, Ethereum’s (ETH) price briefly slipped below $3,000, amplifying fears that another bear market might be here.
However, the cryptocurrency’s outlook isn’t entirely gloomy. In fact, several vital metrics tell a different story.
In this analysis, CCN reveals why ETH may be closer to a recovery than the market currently believes.
Ethereum Hits Critical Level
To start with, one key metric suggesting that an Ethereum bear market has not arrived is the percentage of supply in profit. This metric measures the share of circulating ETH whose last on-chain transaction occurred at a price lower than the current one.
At press time, 59.12% of Ethereum’s circulating supply is in profit. The last time the metric reached this level was July 1, when ETH traded at $2,406.
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A little over a month later, Ethereum’s price rallied to $4,748, marking a substantial increase.
Historically, supply-in-profit readings around this range have aligned with the mid to late stages of bull cycles, rather than the beginning of prolonged downturns.
The fact that more than half of the supply is in profit suggests that holders remain confident and are not rushing to exit their positions.
If Ethereum’s percentage of supply in profit remains elevated, it could reduce the likelihood of a bear-market breakdown, especially at current price levels.
Sustained profitability typically signals that investors are holding with confidence rather than rushing to secure gains.
True Story Revealed On-Chain
Furthermore, this behavior is more consistent with ongoing bullish conditions than with an impending reversal.
Another important metric reinforcing this outlook is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio.
As of press time, Ethereum’s MVRV sits at 24.99%. This ratio measures the average profit or loss of all ETH in circulation, helping to identify overheated or undervalued market conditions.
Historically, Ethereum has only approached macro market tops when the MVRV ratio enters the 136% to 520% range. In contrast, today’s reading remains far below those danger zones.
In the meantime, some analysts argue that Ethereum’s price may trade lower in the short term before staging any significant rebound.
Among them is Ted Pillows, an expert advisor on go-to-market strategy, who suggests that ETH could face a temporary pullback.
“ETH has taken the liquidity below the $3,000 level. The bounce back is still not strong, so a revisit could happen. I think Ethereum could tap the $2,800-$2,900 zone before an actual local bottom,” Pillows opined.
ETH Price Analysis: Bounce After Dip
On the daily chart, ETH’s price remains confined within a descending triangle.
At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has dropped to -0.17, indicating that capital outflows currently exceed inflows.
Despite this bearish pressure, Ethereum still maintains a crucial horizontal support around $3,028.
Notably, the CMF is beginning to break above its downward trend, hinting that selling momentum may be slowing and that buyers could soon regain control.
If buying pressure strengthens from this zone, ETH could attempt a move toward the $3,609 resistance.
Before reaching that level, however, the cryptocurrency must first break through $3,419.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
