Home / Analysis / Crypto / Technical Analysis / Avalanche (AVAX) Price Fails to Hold 38-Day Support: Why It Is the Biggest Loser Among the Top 100 Today
AVAX price has drops 10% after losing key support, confirming a bearish trend with sellers in control.
The recent decline reflects a mix of technical weakness and profit-taking after hype-driven gains.
Unless AVAX reclaims the $9.70 resistance level, the price is likely to fall further below $8.
Avalanche (AVAX) has continued to underperform. While the broader crypto market is seeing mild risk-off consolidation, AVAX’s price has taken a deeper hit.
Over the last 24 hours, the cryptocurrency token has dropped 10%, trading near $8, making it the worst-performing asset among the top 100.
So, what’s behind the decline and what’s next?
Avalanche Breaks Down Again
This divergence is not random. It reflects a combination of technical weakness, profit-taking, and growing supply concerns.
At the technical level, AVAX’s price has lost a key support zone. The price failed to hold its 38-day support, which triggered a deeper move lower.
Once that level gave way, selling pressure accelerated. Buyers did not step in with enough strength. Consequently, the short-term structure turned clearly bearish.
On the 4-hour chart, AVAX’s price remains within a descending channel. Each move shows the same structure: a downward trend, a brief breakout attempt, and then another rejection.
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This confirms that sellers remain in control and rallies are being sold into.
The latest drop below the $8.50–$8.60 region is particularly important. This level had acted as a 38-day support.
Now that it has been lost, it is likely to flip into resistance. As a result, the market structure has shifted further toward the downside.
Momentum indicators support this view. The MACD has printed a bearish crossover, with red histogram bars building.
At the same time, the RSI sits near 35, showing weak demand but not yet oversold conditions. This suggests there is still room for further downside.
Price action also shows a clear lower high near $9.70, which remains a strong resistance level. The failure to break above it reinforces the ongoing downtrend.
As it stands, if AVAX stays below $8.50, the next targets sit at $8.20 and then the $8 psychological level.
A deeper move could extend toward the $7.60 zone if selling pressure increases.
On the flip side, bulls need to reclaim $8.50 first. A move above $9.00 would ease pressure, but only a break above $9.70 would signal a real trend shift.
However, the bigger story lies in recent market behavior.
Big News, Harder Crash
Earlier this month, Avalanche gained strong attention after news broke that the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) had selected the network for a pilot program focused on tokenized stocks and real-world assets.
The announcement sparked a surge in interest. Trading volume jumped by more than 100%, and the AVAX price action followed quickly.
Yet, that momentum did not last.
Instead, the market has shifted into what appears to be a classic “sell-the-news” phase.
For context, investors who entered during the hype are now exiting positions. This transition from accumulation to distribution is putting pressure on the price.
As a result, AVAX is correcting more aggressively than other altcoins.
At the same time, sentiment is not helping.
The market is currently in an extreme fear state, with the index sitting around 13. In such conditions, traders become more defensive.
While wedges can sometimes lead to bullish breakouts, the context here is different. The pattern is forming after a prolonged downtrend, which increases the likelihood of continuation rather than reversal.
Volume dynamics add to the concern. At the time of writing, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) trend continues to drift lower, signaling that buying pressure is insufficient to sustain a recovery.
At the same time, holders’ sentiment remains negative, currently around -7, indicating that market participants are still cautious and possibly distributing.
Going forward, the key level to watch is the $8.50 support zone.
A confirmed breakdown below this area could trigger another leg lower toward $, followed by the $7.50 region, which aligns with previous lows.
On the upside, bulls need to reclaim $9.37 first. However, a stronger confirmation would require a move above $10.50, where major resistance and prior rejection zones converge.
Has AVAX Price Hit the Bottom?
Looking ahead, another factor is beginning to weigh on the outlook.
While this event is still weeks away, markets typically react early. Large holders often rebalance their portfolios 30 to 45 days in advance.
This creates a gradual increase in supply pressure leading up to the actual unlock.
Because of this, potential buyers are stepping back. The expectation of additional tokens entering the market discourages aggressive accumulation. In turn, this weakens the current price floor.
For now, the structure remains fragile. The Avalanche coin price needs to stabilize and reclaim lost levels to shift momentum. Until then, the path of least resistance appears to remain downward.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
