AVAX Price Breaks Major Support Despite ETF Boost — Why Is Avalanche Still Falling?

Avalanche is suddenly back in the spotlight after being confirmed as part of Bitwise’s $1.25 billion crypto index ETF, yet the AVAX price continues to tumble.

Investors are asking the same question: Why is AVAX going down despite significant ETF momentum, rising real-world asset adoption, and a stronger ecosystem?

The charts reveal a stark disconnect between bullish news and bearish technical structure.

Avalanche ETF Approval

The Avalanche ETF might finally come to fruition.

VanEck has submitted all of its remaining filings, so the only thing left is for the SEC to approve it.

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In addition to its own ETF, AVAX is confirmed as part of Bitwise’s $1.25 billion 10 crypto index ETF.

According to the team, this is important because:

• Brings Avalanche into the benchmark sets that allocators actively track
• Provides a regulated, custody-light path for institutions to gain exposure
• Places Avalanche alongside assets already modeled in institutional portfolios

Besides the positive ETF news, the ecosystem has shown other encouraging signs, such as an increase in treasury demand and a rising Total Value Locked (TVL).

Real-world assets in Avalanche have also doubled in the last two months, pushing it past Arbitrum for fourth place globally.

Despite all these positive on-chain stats and news, the AVAX price is struggling to sustain a positive rally.

AVAX Price Analysis

The AVAX price movement is extremely bearish.

The two main reasons for this are:

• A breakdown from a 777-day diagonal support trend line.
• A breakdown from the $16.30 horizontal support area.

Since these were both long-term support levels, the crash below them suggests that the bull cycle has ended.

This is especially true for the diagonal support, which has been in place since the rally began in September 2023.

Unless Avalanche reclaims both, the long-term trend will remain bearish.

Why is AVAX Going Down?

Momentum indicators suggest that the AVAX price will continue to decline.

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50.
• The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is negative.

These long-term indicators suggest that bears are firmly in control, and new lows are likely to follow.

Moreover, the price action shows that the upside potential is limited to only 10%.

On the other hand, the AVAX price could crash by nearly 40% until it reaches the $9 horizontal support area.

What Happens Next?

Avalanche’s fundamentals are stronger than ever: ETF inclusion, growing RWA demand, and rising TVL.

However, the Avalanche price continues to bleed.

The reason is apparent: AVAX has lost its most crucial long-term support levels, and momentum indicators are pointing firmly downward.

Until AVAX reclaims the $16.30 zone and its multi-year trend line, the trend remains bearish, and another significant drop is likely.

For now, the ETF excitement isn’t enough to override the bearish readings.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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