AVAX remains trapped under a descending trendline | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
AVAX’s price is stabilizing, but the bounce still looks corrective.
Exchange netflows and the MVRV score suggest hesitant participation.
On the daily chart, AVAX is unlikely to breach the key resistance soon.
Avalanche (AVAX) is attempting to stabilize after slipping below the critical $15 level. However, the broader technical structure continues to cast doubt on the strength of any potential recovery.
The recent bounce looks more corrective, as AVAX price struggles to reclaim lost ground amid weakening momentum and cautious market participation.
With AVAX’s price trading well below its former support zone, now acting as resistance, the current setup signals hesitation rather than renewed bullish conviction.
As a result, the breakout thesis remains fragile for now.
Is AVAX ready for an uptrend? Let’s find out.
Indicators Signal Cautious Stabilization
Short-term indicators paint a mixed but cautious picture.
On the 4-hour chart, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has been gradually recovering and currently stands at 40.67, suggesting modest capital inflows are returning.
Additionally, the indicator remains below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that buying pressure is still too weak to sustain an upside breakout.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reflects a neutral-to-slightly bullish bias.
The 12-period EMA continues to hold marginally above the 26-period EMA, while the histogram prints shallow positive bars.
This setup points to stabilization rather than acceleration, reinforcing the view that recent upside attempts lack conviction.
A closer look at the technical outlook shows AVAX’s price remains capped beneath its descending trendline, with the $13.80 to $14.74 region serving as immediate resistance.
Until price breaks above this channel and reclaims the $15 level, upside moves are likely to remain corrective.
Inflows Signal Hesitation
On-chain data further supports this cautious outlook.
The spot exchange netflow recorded a modest inflow of $59,340 into exchanges over the past 24 hours, a figure that remains largely insignificant in the broader market context.
This muted inflow highlights cautious positioning rather than conviction-driven accumulation, suggesting buyers remain reluctant to commit meaningful liquidity at current levels.
Meanwhile, AVAX’s price is showing signs of cooling after its early-January rally, with on-chain metrics now backing the recent pullback.
Notably, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score has rolled over from local highs.
This signifies that unrealized profits have been flushed out as price retraced from the $14 zone toward the $12 range.
Interestingly, AVAX price action reflects this shift.
After a strong move, AVAX failed to hold higher levels and entered a corrective phase marked by lower highs and steady selling pressure.
As such, the recent bounce appears more corrective than trend-changing, as momentum remains subdued and the MVRV Z-score has yet to show a clear bullish inflection.
From a broader perspective, this combination points to consolidation rather than renewed upside.
Therefore, AVAX may need time to base and absorb supply before attempting another sustained move higher.
A stabilization of the MVRV metric, alongside higher lows in price, would be the first signal that accumulation is returning. Until then, the market structure favors caution over aggressive bullish positioning.
At the time of writing, this region is now in resistance. However, technical indicators continue to undermine confidence in this move.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains tilted downward in negative territory, signaling increased selling pressure.
This reinforces the view that Avalanche’s price is still far from a meaningful recovery.
In addition, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) aligns with this narrative.
At the time of writing, the 20-day EMA continues to hover above the candles, acting as a significant resistance level for AVAX’s price.
With the asset trading around $12.40, the altcoin appears constrained in the short term.
Price action remains pinned below the 20-day EMA, confirming that sellers still dominate the broader structure despite the modest bounce.
Fibonacci retracement levels offer additional clarity on Avalanche’s price outlook.
As shown below, the altcoin appears to be drifting toward its nearest support at $11.88. A break below this level could extend AVAX’s decline toward the zero Fib level around $11.21.
For any meaningful recovery to unfold, AVAX’s price must first clear major resistance zones at $16.55 and $20.74.
Until then, the prevailing market structure suggests Avalanche’s price remains constrained within a broader downtrend.
In the meantime, technical analyst ARI ZAIM echoed this outlook. According to him, AVAX must overcome key resistance zones before entering an uptrend.
“AVAX Weekly triangle support is still holding, and bulls aren’t letting the lower border go.
If this bounce confirms, my levels are clear: 30 first, then 55, and the big swing sits at 120. This is the kind of structure that can flip fast,” he stated.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
