Key Takeaways
As crypto markets have turned bullish in the past month and a half, pundits revived a popular game – predicting the Bitcoin price cycle’s next peak.
In its contribution to the sport, on Friday, December 7, VanEck published a list of crypto predictions for 2024, speculating that the price of Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high (ATH) in the fourth quarter of the year.
In a recent blog post, VanEck analysts said they think the Bitcoin price will reach a new record high on November 9th, 2024, exactly 3 years to the day from its previous ATH. If correct, their prediction will see BTC climb over 155% from its current price of around $43,600 to over $69,000 in Q4, 2024.
The analysts’ bullish outlook is based on a precedent established by previous cycles, when Bitcoin made its most dramatic price gains in the 12 months after each halving. They also argued that political and economic volatility will boost demand for BTC in the year ahead.
Noting that 45% of the global population is expected to vote in legislative and presidential elections in 2024, they predicted that “Bitcoin will climb a Presidential-sized wall of worry” in the second half of the year.
Of course, by November 9, the USA will have voted for its next President. Anticipating Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the VanEck blog speculated that such an event could spell the end of the SEC’s hostile treatment of the crypto sector, providing a further boost to the price of Bitcoin.
From there, the analysts’ predictions get even more optimistic, forecasting prices of as high as $100,000 by December. What’s more, with several Wall Street experts making similar predictions, VanEck isn’t the only firm anticipating six-figure BTC prices by 2025.
While November 2024 will mark 3 years since the crypto market’s last peak, Bitcoin has historically moved in 4-year cycles, with its price continuing to rise for around a year after surpassing the previous ATH.
One method of BTC price prediction uses logarithmic regression models to forecast future prices based on past data.
According to such analyses, if the pattern established in previous years is repeated, the BTC ceiling could rise above $100,000 in 2025, potentially even reaching $190,000–$200,000 by the end of the bull cycle.