For months now, the crypto markets have been eagerly waiting for news that the Securities and Exchange Commission has approved a spot Bitcoin ETF. A false news story on October 16 has already sent markets into a frenzy.
We’ve collected five of the most interesting predictions for Bitcoin’s price if that scenario happens—analysts at Bloomberg put the chances at over 90%. (Spoiler alert: nobody is expecting the price to go down, at least.)
Cryptocurrency services provider Matrixport believes Bitcoin could surge to $56,000 if a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC. In a recent report, Matrixport said Bitcoin hitting $42,000 would be a conservative estimate based on 10-20% of gold ETF investors diversifying into Bitcoin.
With over $200 billion invested in gold ETFs, even 10% flowing into Bitcoin could bring $12-24 billion into a Bitcoin ETF. Matrixport notes the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust hit $44 billion assets under management at its peak, so $12-24 billion inflows seem reasonable.
Additionally, Matrixport says the 15,000 registered investment advisors overseeing $5 trillion in assets have huge potential for Bitcoin. Even a modest 1% Bitcoin allocation recommendation from RIAs could bring $50 billion into Bitcoin and push its price to $56,000.
Known for his incisive breakdowns of the crypto markets, Lark Davis educates his millions of followers on major crypto trends while providing price predictions for Bitcoin and altcoins.
In a recent interview, Davis, a former teacher, said he believed Bitcoin could hit $48,000 in 2023 if a spot ETF is approved. While not predicting new all-time highs this year, Davis says $48,000 is a bull case for Bitcoin by Christmas if the ETF goes through.
Longer term, Davis sees Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 and potentially reaching $150,000 by the 2024-2025 cycle peak.
According to Fundstrat’s head of research Tom Lee, Bitcoin could explode above $150,000 by the end of 2024, if several spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved in the US.
Citing the shifting supply-demand dynamics, Lee believes ETF demand would outstrip Bitcoin’s daily supply, pushing its price over $150,000, potentially as high as $180,000. Lee notes Europe already has spot Bitcoin ETFs trading, so US-approved ETFs would have an outsized impact on price.
According to Ernst & Young’s global blockchain leader Paul Brody, Bitcoin is facing massive pent-up demand from institutional investors awaiting SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
In a recent CNBC interview , Brody explained trillions of institutional dollars are waiting on the sidelines to buy Bitcoin through an ETF or other regulated investment vehicle.
While retail investors are purchasing Bitcoin as an asset, institutions cannot access crypto markets until regulatory barriers are removed. However, Brody believes institutions see Bitcoin as an investment asset, not a payment network like Ethereum.
Once institutions can invest in Bitcoin through an ETF, Brody expects a flood of new demand that could significantly push up Bitcoin’s price, with billions in institutional capital to finally enter the Bitcoin market after years of restrictive barriers.
Whilst not a precise prediction, EY’s analysis provides yet another reason to feel bullish on Bitcoin.
Crypto analyst Alex Krüger, co-founder of Asgard Markets, predicts daily +20% moves in the price of Bitcoin if the SEC gets around to approving a spot Bitcoin ETF.
In an October 16 post on X (formerly Twitter), Krüger noted the strong market reaction to ETF applications shows the approval is not fully priced in yet. He believes a 20%+ single-day gain is likely when a Bitcoin spot ETF gets the green light from the SEC. If one were approved today, that would put BTC at approximately $41,700.
When the fake news broke that the SEC had approved BlackRock’s iShares spot Bitcoin ETF, the price from $27,962 to $29,388 within minutes of the story breaking. The equivalent of just over 5%. So, Krüger expects the actual news to make much bigger waves.
One thing you have to say about Tim Draper, the eccentric investor, is that he’s consistent. Draper has been extolling the virtues and benefits of Bitcoin for years, having held the coin since at least 2014 after buying 30,000 BTC following the collapse of the Mt. Gox exchange.
In more recent years, Draper has predicted again and again that Bitcoin will reach $250,000, first making the prediction in 2018 . After failing to hit the mark in 2022, Draper then updated his prediction to June 2023. In an interview with Bloomberg TV to explain his failed forecast, he “wasn’t really expecting for the U.S. bureaucracy to be this aggressive.”
Draper is now, once again, predicting “maybe two years” until it reaches that magic number. Unless something major happens, we’ll almost certainly have a spot Bitcoin ETF in place. If we get there, the ETF would certainly have helped.
Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, knows a thing or two about spot Bitcoin ETFs, having applied for one herself. The ARK Invest and 21 Shares’ joint spot Bitcoin ETF is one of at least 10 currently waiting for approval from the SEC.
More recently, ARK filed the first spot ETF for ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
During a recent interview on Coin Stories, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood was asked by Natalie Brunell to expand on her firm’s research predicting a $1.48 million Bitcoin price by 2030. Brunell presented three potential scenarios: a bear case of $258,000, a base case of $682,000, and a bullish projection of $1.48 million.
Wood explained one of the primary factors shaping these projections was increasing institutional adoption. Well, a spot Bitcoin ETF would certainly help.