Solana Price Slides 10%, But Pantera Capital Purchases Locked SOL, Bullish Wave Count Remains Intact
When Will the SOL Price Correction End? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
Key Takeaways
- Solana’s price has fallen since reaching a high of $210 on March 18, despite Pantera Capital purchasing locked SOL.
- The price decrease coincided with an RSI rejection from the 50 level.
- Has SOL reached its bottom on April 13, or will another decrease occur?
Solana was the best performing Layer-1 blockchain in the latter half of 2021. The increase continued in the first quarter of 2024, nearly leading to a new all-time high in March.
However, a significant correction ensued afterward, and SOL has not recovered yet, despite Pantera Capital’s buying locked SOL from FTX. Its short-term structure casts doubt as to whether the correction is complete and if another low will eventually follow.
SOL Nearly Reaches New All-Time High
SOL started a five-wave upward movement (white) in December 2022. Wave three extended, culminating with a high of $210 in March 2024. The sub-wave count is in black.
This high was slightly below the all-time high price of $259, reached in November 2021.
However, the SOL price fell 45% after the high. While the decrease is sufficient in magnitude, it is brief relative to wave three, which continued for 287 days. Comparatively, the correction lasted for only 21 days.
The ongoing decrease was preceded by a bearish divergence in the weekly RSI (green). Shortly afterward, the MACD also made a bearish cross (red icon). This confirms that wave three has ended and wave four has begun.
An interesting development is that crypto venture capital giant Pantera Capital is purchasing SOL tokens at a discount. The FTX estate has been selling SOL tokens at an auction over the past few months. The SOL tokens are being sold at a discount, and Pantera reportedly purchased 2,000 SOL at a price of slightly over $60.
The reason for the discounted price is the tokens have an up to four-year lockup period before they can be sold in the open market.
FTX reportedly holds over 41 million locked SOL, which it previously sold at a fixed price. However, due to significant buyer interest, they are now auctioning the current batch. The next auction is scheduled for May 1.
To determine if the correction is over, it is necessary to examine a lower time frame. This is because of the the disconnect between the magnitude and length of the correction. Afterward the bullish wave count is likely to take SOL to a new all-time high.
SOL Price Prediction: Is the Correction Over?
A closer look at the daily time frame wave count shows that SOL has already completed an A-B-C correction (yellow). As outlined before, this is not likely to mark the end of the entire decrease. Rather, it could be just the first portion of a longer corrective structure.
The most likely possibility is that wave four will develop into a symmetrical triangle, a frequently observed corrective pattern for wave four. If so, the price bottom has been reached, but SOL will continue consolidating for at least another month before an eventual breakout.
The second possibility is more bearish. It suggests that the short-term decrease is part of wave A in a larger A-B-C correction. In this possibility, SOL is currently in wave B, which will take it near $200. Then, wave C will break below the $116 bottom of April 13, leading to lows near $200. This will complete the long-term wave four.
However, both counts indicate a short-term increase toward $200 is underway. Then, the shape of the ensuing decrease will determine which of the counts will play out for wave four. After the correction is over, the SOL wave count predicts an all-time high.
Short-Term Bounce Underway, Correction Not Over Yet
In summary, SOL’s future wave count gives potential scenarios. Both suggest choppy movement before the correction is over. The more optimistic scenario assumes the April 13 low will hold, albeit with further consolidation before an eventual breakout. However, regardless of the scenario, the ongoing upward trend since 2023 remains intact, indicating a forthcoming new peak.
