Key Takeaways
- XRP is consolidating around $1.35, with analyst Ali Martinez identifying $1.38 as the key breakout level for a potential move toward $1.60.
- Recent derivatives data offer some support for the bullish case, as XRP rallied strongly while overall futures leverage declined and institutional exposure on the CME increased.
- The setup is far from confirmed: XRP remains below major long-term moving averages, and a break below the $1.31 support could invalidate the near-term bullish structure.
XRP could be approaching a decisive technical move as the token compresses between a heavily traded support zone and resistance around $1.38, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez.
Martinez, known as Ali Charts on X, said XRP needs to hold the $1.31-$1.35 support zone as it moves toward the apex of its current triangle. A decisive break above $1.38 would confirm a bullish breakout, potentially opening the door to a move toward $1.60.
The setup comes after a volatile week for XRP. The token closed around $1.35 on Sept. 13 after trading as high as $1.43 two days earlier. XRP had fallen 4.4% on Sept. 10 before recovering 1.6% the following session, highlighting the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers around the mid-$1.30 range.
XRP’s $1.31-$1.38 Zone Holds Billions in Supply
There is some onchain evidence behind Martinez’s focus on the current range.
A previous cost-basis analysis shared by Martinez showed that more than 4.8 billion XRP were acquired between $1.31 and $1.38, making this range a potentially important demand zone. If buyers continue defending those levels, the concentration of holders around their acquisition prices could provide support.
But the same data carries a warning. If XRP falls decisively below $1.31, holders who bought within the range would go underwater, potentially turning what currently looks like support into overhead resistance during a recovery.
Resistance also extends beyond $1.38. Martinez’s earlier analysis identified approximately 1.99 billion XRP acquired at around $1.60, followed by another 1.98 billion at around $1.68. That suggests $1.60 is better viewed as the next major test following a breakout rather than an unobstructed upside target.
Derivatives Data Show Less Speculative Leverage
Recent futures positioning provides another potentially constructive signal.
Total XRP futures open interest fell roughly 16% between Aug. 17 and Aug. 31, from 2.77 billion XRP to 2.34 billion XRP, even as XRP rallied almost 40%. That divergence suggests the rally was not simply driven by traders aggressively increasing leverage.
At the same time, CME open interest increased roughly 36% to 387 million XRP, raising the regulated exchange’s share of outstanding XRP futures exposure from around 10% to 17%. The shift could indicate greater participation from professional and institutional traders, although CME positions can also be used for hedging rather than directional bullish bets.
More recent Glassnode data showed approximately $1.44 billion in open interest in XRP perpetual futures across tracked exchanges as of Sept. 9, with Binance holding the largest share.
$1.38 Breakout Still Needs Confirmation
The bullish thesis nevertheless faces a straightforward technical hurdle: XRP has not yet broken resistance.
Technical data compiled by Investing.com showed XRP’s 14-day RSI at around 49.6, effectively neutral, while the MACD remained in a sell signal. More importantly, XRP was below its 50-, 100-, and 200-period simple moving averages, with the 200-period average near $1.39.
That puts Martinez’s $1.38 breakout threshold near another technically significant resistance level.
There are positive fundamental signals. US-listed XRP ETFs recorded $1.55 million in net inflows on Sept. 8, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum products posted outflows, suggesting that some institutional demand has persisted during XRP’s consolidation.
Still, $1.60 remains a conditional target rather than a confirmed destination. Holding $1.31-$1.35 keeps Martinez’s bullish triangle intact, while a convincing move through $1.38 could strengthen momentum.
A failure below $1.31 would tell a different story, potentially turning the heavily accumulated support zone into resistance and putting lower levels back into focus.
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The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
