Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000 amid Iran tensions, rising oil prices and inflation fears.
- Bearish sentiment appears to be growing.
- Analysts say a weakening liquidity outlook is weighing down Bitcoin.
Bitcoin fell below key levels on Thursday as escalating geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices rattled global markets, undermining sentiment toward risk assets and adding to a month-long wave of bearish analyst commentary.
Bitcoin Price Pressured By Iran Tensions, Energy Shock
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin’s price is $70,448, down to $69,508, a 5.05% decline in the past 24 hours.
The price drop comes as investors reacted to renewed attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East.
The sell-off also came alongside broader weakness in global equities, Bloomberg reported, as Japanese stocks recorded their longest losing streak since April.
Rising oil prices, driven by concerns over supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, have added to inflation worries.
Higher energy costs risk pushing consumer prices further above central bank targets, potentially delaying interest rate cuts and tightening financial conditions.
Bearish Bitcoin Price Forecasts Gain Traction
Against this backdrop, bearish sentiment in the crypto market has intensified over recent weeks, with several analysts warning of deeper downside risks.
X analyst Captain Faibik pointed to a bearish flag formation, warning that a confirmed breakdown could push Bitcoin toward $55,000.
Crypto analyst Leshka.eth also wrote on X that Bitcoin has historically experienced far steeper declines in bear markets, stating that previous cycles saw drawdowns of at least 78% from peak levels.
“We’re not there yet — the flush is approaching,” the analyst said, suggesting further capitulation may be ahead.
If Bitcoin were to fall 78% from its peak, the price would enter the $27,500–$28,000 range.
However, traders pushed back on the analyst, arguing that Bitcoin had matured and strengthened since past cycles with institutional backing.
“BTC has never had governments and institutional holders before,” one X user said.
Another wrote: “Why do you expect BTC to follow the previous cycles in terms of low when it got nowhere in the previous cycles in terms of a top?”
Traders also argued that Bitcoin cycles were changing.
“BTC has also never made a new ATH before the halving. Last cycle, it did. Also, BTC never had a post-halving red year. Last cycle, it did. Seems cycles are changing,” one X user wrote.
Liquidity Outlook Weakens
While some investors have historically viewed Bitcoin as a hedge during geopolitical turmoil, analysts say the current environment challenges that narrative.
Prominent crypto investor Arthur Hayes recently argued that war itself does not boost Bitcoin’s price. Instead, the key driver is monetary expansion that often follows large-scale conflicts.
Hayes said he would not invest in Bitcoin at present and said Bitcoin rallies are closely tied to increases in global liquidity, particularly when central banks expand the money supply.
According to Motley Fool analyst Erik Volkman, interest rates remain a central force shaping crypto sentiment.
“All things being equal, when they’re on the way down, investors get more excited about digital coins and tokens,” Volkman said.
“Conversely, when they stay level (or even rise), that sentiment can quickly turn negative.”
The U.S. Federal Reserve this week kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, while signaling limited scope for near-term rate cuts amid persisting inflation risks.
“The interest rate calculation is a rather simple one; when rates go down, the yields of so-called ‘safe assets’ like government bonds decline,” Volkman added.
“This, in turn, makes riskier investments — hello, cryptos! — more appealing.”
However, according to Motley Fool analyst Alex Carchidi, current conditions point in the opposite direction.
Inflation remains above target, with consumer prices rising 2.4% year-on-year in February, and the surge in energy costs threatens to push inflation closer to 3% by year-end.
This reduces the likelihood of near-term rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Technical Analysis Suggests Pullback
Technical indicators point to near-term weakness in Bitcoin’s price action, though analysts say the broader uptrend may remain intact.
Victor Olanrewaju, an analyst at CCN, said Bitcoin’s recent decline reflects a pullback from resistance rather than a decisive reversal, pointing to a still-active bullish divergence signal and resilient capital inflows.
In the near term, the 20-day EMA around $70,524 is seen as a key level, Olanrewaju said.
A sustained move above it on a daily closing basis could open the path back toward $75,511, with further upside targets at $85,231 and $93,087 based on Fibonacci retracement levels.
However, a drop below $65,766 would force a reassessment of Bitcoin’s broader trajectory, he added.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
