Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes says he wouldn’t buy Bitcoin right now, even with $1, holding instead a portfolio split between cash and gold while waiting for monetary easing.
- He warns geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict, along with potential AI-driven job losses, could trigger broader market sell-offs and push BTC below $60,000.
- Despite the near-term caution, Hayes remains strongly bullish long term, predicting Bitcoin could reach $500,000–$750,000 by the end of 2026 as global liquidity surges.
Arthur Hayes has never been shy about making bold calls. But his latest take on Bitcoin is unusually blunt.
In a recent interview, the Maelstrom Fund CIO said that even if he had just one dollar to invest today, he wouldn’t buy Bitcoin.
Instead, Hayes says he is waiting.
For now, his portfolio is split between cash and gold while he watches the macro landscape for what he believes will be the real catalyst for the next major crypto rally: a return to aggressive money printing from the Federal Reserve.
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Waiting for the Liquidity Switch?
Hayes’ thesis is rooted in a long-standing belief about Bitcoin’s relationship with global monetary policy.
In the interview, he described Bitcoin as essentially a “credit derivative of fiat money creation.”
When central banks expand liquidity, risk assets — including crypto — tend to surge.
When financial conditions tighten or uncertainty dominates, those assets often struggle.
In Hayes’ view, the market has not yet reached the moment when liquidity conditions turn decisively supportive again.
“ If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” he said.
His strategy reflects that caution. Rather than holding crypto, Hayes said he currently maintains a portfolio consisting of 50% cash and 50% gold, positioning himself defensively until macro conditions change.
That shift, he believes, will come when central banks begin easing policy again and expanding liquidity.
“And that’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin — when the central banks start printing money.”
Geopolitics and AI Risks
In the short term, Hayes sees multiple macro risks that could pressure markets before the liquidity cycle turns.
One major concern is geopolitical escalation, particularly tensions surrounding the U.S.–Iran conflict.
A prolonged confrontation, he warns, could disrupt key oil infrastructure and shipping lanes, potentially sending energy prices sharply higher and destabilizing global markets.
In that scenario, risk assets — including cryptocurrencies — could see significant volatility.
Hayes has previously argued that “war is good for Bitcoin” in the long run because military spending typically leads to massive fiscal deficits and increased money printing. But before that liquidity arrives, markets often endure painful adjustments.
The second risk he highlights is technological disruption.
Hayes predicts that rapid advances in artificial intelligence could lead to substantial job losses among high-income U.S. knowledge workers over the next several months. He estimates that 10% to 20% of such workers could face displacement within three to six months.
Because many of these professionals carry significant leverage — including mortgages, student loans, and credit card debt — widespread layoffs could ripple through the financial system.
A credit shock of that magnitude, he argues, would likely push markets into a deflationary phase before policymakers intervene.
Historically, Hayes says Bitcoin often reacts early to such stress events, falling alongside risk assets before recovering once central banks respond with emergency liquidity.
Under those conditions, he believes Bitcoin could temporarily fall below $60,000 before stabilizing.
A Long-Term Bull Remains
Despite the near-term caution, Hayes remains deeply optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-run trajectory.
He has repeatedly argued that global fiscal pressures, military spending, and economic slowdowns will ultimately force governments to expand liquidity dramatically.
When that happens, assets that benefit from monetary expansion — including Bitcoin — could surge.
Hayes’ projections reflect that view.
While he believes Bitcoin will comfortably exceed $100,000 again in the coming years, he has floated significantly higher long-term targets.
In recent commentary, he suggested prices could eventually reach $500,000 to $750,000 by the end of 2026 if global liquidity expands aggressively.
He has also described $250,000 as a more conservative 2026 scenario, arguing that Bitcoin below six figures may not persist indefinitely once the next liquidity cycle begins.
Hayes’ Track Record
Hayes’ predictions are known for their boldness — and their mixed timing.
A review of roughly twenty of his recent market calls found that two proved accurate, sixteen missed their timing, and two remain unresolved.
This includes longer-term forecasts such as Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2028.
Hayes himself has acknowledged this uneven record. In a Substack essay, he described his own forecasting performance during 2023 and 2024 as having a “25% batting average.”
Many of his broader macro theses, however, have ultimately moved in the right direction even when the timeline differed from his initial expectations.
For example, Hayes predicted in 2024 that Bitcoin would break $100,000 by year-end, a milestone that the asset eventually reached as institutional inflows and post-halving momentum strengthened the market.
Other forecasts have been less precise.
In late 2025, Hayes suggested Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by March 2026, citing Federal Reserve liquidity programs that he described as a form of stealth quantitative easing.
Instead, Bitcoin corrected sharply and now trades around $70,000 amid renewed geopolitical and macro uncertainty.
Patience Before the Next Cycle
Hayes’ current outlook follows a familiar pattern: short-term caution combined with long-term optimism tied to liquidity cycles.
War, technological disruption, and economic stress may create volatility in the near term.
But those same forces, he argues, often push governments toward greater fiscal spending and monetary expansion.
When that shift arrives, the conditions that historically fuel Bitcoin rallies could return quickly.
For now, Hayes’ strategy is simple: preserve liquidity, hedge with gold, and wait for clear signs that the global monetary tide is turning.
Bitcoin may face further downside before that moment arrives. But in Hayes’ view, once the next wave of money printing begins, the long-term trajectory remains firmly upward.
Prashant Jha is a seasoned crypto journalist based in Delhi, India, with a Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science Engineering. Passionate about the evolving world of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, he has been a dedicated voice in the industry since 2018. Prashant’s expertise lies in regulatory reporting, where he unravels complex legal and financial developments with clarity and precision. Before joining CCN in 2024, he honed his craft at Cointelegraph, establishing himself as a trusted name in crypto journalism.
His coverage spans major industry events, including the high-profile collapses of FTX, Three Arrows Capital (3AC), and LUNA, offering readers insightful analyses of their regulatory and market implications. Prashant’s technical background enables him to bridge the gap between intricate blockchain technology and its real-world applications, making his work accessible to novices and experts.
Beyond his professional pursuits, Prashant is an avid music enthusiast, often exploring diverse genres to unwind. A sports lover, he has a particular passion for cricket and frequently engages in discussions about the game. His multifaceted interests and sharp journalistic instincts make him a valuable contributor to CCN, where he continues shaping the crypto landscape's narrative.
