Polymarket’s crypto-native model is scaling quickly.
Prediction markets are attracting unprecedented investor interest this year as rivals Polymarket and Kalshi each pursue billion-dollar valuations, marking one of the fastest ascents in the emerging sector.
The two platforms, one crypto-native, the other fully regulated, have become the industry’s dominant poles.
Their rapid fundraising rounds and surging volumes have turned prediction markets into one of 2025’s most closely watched competitions across both crypto and traditional finance.
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Crypto-based platform Polymarket is in early talks to raise new capital at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion, according to Bloomberg, which cited people familiar with the matter.
That figure represents a more than tenfold increase from its valuation just four months ago.
In June, Founders Fund led a $200 million round valuing Polymarket at $1 billion, Reuters reported.
Earlier this month, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, announced that it would invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket at an $8 billion valuation, excluding any new capital the company may raise.
The deal made CEO Shayne Coplan one of the youngest self-made billionaires, Bloomberg reported.
According to the publication, the platform recorded more than $2 billion in weekly volume during the period ending Oct. 19, surpassing activity seen during the 2024 U.S. election cycle.
The company has also re-entered the U.S. market after being ousted in 2022, with Polymarket announcing in September that it had secured approval to operate domestically again.
The investment comes less than two months after Kalshi’s previous $300 million round, which valued the company at $5 billion.
Kalshi, which operates as a federally regulated exchange, has expanded rapidly over the past year.
The platform reportedly reached $50 billion in annualized trading volume in October, up from approximately $300 million the previous year.
Kalshi has risen alongside Polymarket this year, with both platforms correctly predicting the outcome of the New York mayoral election.
More Players Enter the Space
Major crypto exchanges are also looking to enter the increasingly crowded market.
Independent developer Jane Manchun Wong, known for revealing unreleased app features, said she found evidence that Coinbase is working on a prediction-market interface.
Coinbase is developing a Polymarket rival. | Source: Coinbase
She also discovered signs of an upcoming tokenized stock trading product.
Screenshots she shared on social media included internal tabs labeled “Predictions” and “Stocks.”
A Coinbase-branded prediction market would enter a rapidly expanding industry currently led by Polymarket and Kalshi.
With tens of millions of existing users, Coinbase could compete aggressively on distribution and liquidity.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s media group plans to introduce a prediction-market service called Truth Predict inside its Truth Social app.
Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) said testing will begin “in the near future,” with a nationwide U.S. rollout expected before potential international expansion.
Can Crypto Beat Regulated Finance?
Whether crypto-native or regulated platforms ultimately dominate prediction markets remains unclear, but early signs show both approaches scaling quickly.
Polymarket’s momentum highlights crypto’s speed advantage, with rapid investment and a reported $12-$15 billion valuation, more than ten times its level just four months ago.
However, its growth remains constrained by ongoing regulatory uncertainty, as the platform only recently regained access to the U.S. market.
Kalshi, meanwhile, is built on the premise that long-term success will depend on regulation.
The exchange operates as a federally designated contract market, providing it with a compliance framework similar to that of traditional futures venues.
This structure has opened the door to hedge funds and institutions unwilling to trade on less-regulated platforms.
But Kalshi is also navigating legal friction, facing challenges from state regulators who argue event-contract trading constitutes gambling, despite its court victory over the CFTC last year.
And while Kalshi has strong institutional appeal, it lacks the viral traction that has propelled Polymarket’s user growth.
For now, the sector’s rapid expansion shows no decisive winner.
Both the crypto-native and regulated models are accelerating, setting the stage for the next phase of the prediction-market race.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
