Key Takeaways
- Mike McGlone warns that Bitcoin’s weakening trend could foreshadow declines in stocks and industrial metals.
- His 50-week moving-average comparison shows similarities with Bitcoin’s 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
- A sustained Bitcoin recovery would challenge McGlone’s bearish interpretation.
Bitcoin’s weakening long-term momentum could signal trouble beyond cryptocurrency markets, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, who warns that stocks and industrial metals may eventually follow its decline.
In a post on X, McGlone compared Bitcoin’s rolling 50-week average with patterns surrounding the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
His concern centers on a divergence: Bitcoin’s trend has deteriorated, while equities and economically sensitive commodities have yet to show comparable weakness.
The warning comes as renewed Federal Reserve tightening challenges assumptions about the durability of rising asset prices, putting Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional markets under scrutiny.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trend Raises a Familiar Concern
McGlone argues that Bitcoin’s climb above $100,000 in 2025 may have represented an overshoot with consequences extending beyond digital assets.
His chart uses 50-week moving averages to smooth short-term volatility and compare longer-term trends across Bitcoin, the S&P 500, the Bloomberg Commodity All Metals Total Return Subindex, and copper.
According to his assessment, Bitcoin is rolling over after an extended plateau resembling earlier bearish episodes. The difference is that the other markets have not developed the corresponding downtrends he associates with previous crypto downturns.
“Is the first-born crypto issuing a warning or a feint?” McGlone wrote.
That distinction matters. If Bitcoin is reacting earlier to deteriorating financial conditions, its weakness could foreshadow a broader retreat. Alternatively, the divergence could reflect pressures concentrated within cryptocurrency markets.
A moving average describes past prices rather than establishing what happens next. McGlone’s comparison, therefore, presents a warning scenario, with confirmation still dependent on how Bitcoin and other assets perform.
Fed Tightening Adds Weight to the Macro Debate
The monetary backdrop gives investors a concrete reason to examine that scenario.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest-rate range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%-4% in September. Its statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated, explaining that the increase would support a return toward its 2% goal.
The next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28, placing another interest-rate decision near the end of a month McGlone identified as potentially decisive.
Higher rates can increase financing costs and make interest-bearing assets more competitive with speculative investments. That creates a possible transmission channel between monetary tightening, weaker risk appetite and falling asset prices.
However, another immediate increase is not assured. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said on Oct. 16 that he would not prejudge decisions at the October and December meetings, according to the Associated Press.
McGlone’s concern is that persistent inflation could keep policy restrictive until financial markets weaken enough to cool spending and wealth creation.
Copper’s Resilience Leaves the Warning Unconfirmed
Industrial metals provide a useful test of whether Bitcoin’s weakness reflects broader economic stress.
CME Group’s October metals update reported that active copper futures ended September at $6.6215 per pound, down 1% for the month. Despite volatile trading, tight global supply and robust Chinese demand helped support prices during the period.
Those supply-and-demand forces complicate any simple comparison with Bitcoin. Copper can remain supported by physical shortages even when investors become more cautious about financial assets.
Similarly, a divergence between cryptocurrency and equities does not establish which market will ultimately adjust.
For McGlone, however, Bitcoin now needs to demonstrate renewed strength. Continued deterioration alongside weakening stocks and metals would strengthen his argument that speculative enthusiasm is unwinding across markets.
A Bitcoin recovery would challenge that reading. Until either outcome develops, his warning rests on an unresolved question for Wall Street: whether crypto is experiencing an isolated setback or registering financial pressure before other markets do.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
