Key Takeaways
Crypto markets have added an estimated $280 billion in value in 24 hours after one of the largest leveraged position wipesouts on record turned a Bitcoin rebound into a full-scale short squeeze.
The Kobeissi Letter said approximately $3.5 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated over the 24-hour period, which ranks as crypto’s seventh-largest liquidation event. It is estimated that the industry’s total market capitalization simultaneously increased by $280 billion, equivalent to roughly $12 billion per hour.
Other liquidation trackers have produced slightly different totals and historical rankings because exchanges, reporting windows, and coverage vary. CoinGlass data puts Bitcoin short liquidations alone at roughly $2.75 billion during the initial squeeze.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed from around $64,000 to above $72,000, while Ether (ETH) recorded an even larger percentage move. By Friday morning, BTC had extended the recovery beyond $76,000.
The first catalyst came from somewhere outside crypto: the US government bond market.
On Aug. 19, the Treasury unexpectedly announced that it would double the size of liquidity-support buybacks for 10- to 30-year Treasury securities, increasing purchases from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation between Sept. 9 and Nov. 4.
The move followed a bond selloff that had pushed the 30-year Treasury yield close to 5.34%, its highest level since 2007.
Long-term yields subsequently dropped by as much as 10 basis points, and the dollar weakened by around 0.7%. Stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all moved higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its decline to more than 500 points as US Treasury yields continued to climb, despite the Treasury’s efforts to ease pressure in the bond market through expanded buybacks.
Lower bond yields can help crypto because returns on relatively safer government debt decline, while a weaker dollar can increase demand for alternative assets.
But the Treasury announcement alone does not explain the speed of Bitcoin’s move.
Crypto derivatives markets were heavily positioned for lower prices.
As Bitcoin began to rise, leveraged traders holding short positions were liquidated. Exchanges then automatically closed those trades.
Closing a Bitcoin short generally requires buying Bitcoin back. When thousands of positions are forced to close simultaneously, it creates additional demand, pushing prices higher and liquidating another layer of shorts.
That feedback loop helped Bitcoin accelerate from around $65,000 toward $70,000 in hours.
MarketWatch reported that more than $1 billion of short positions were liquidated in roughly one hour during the sharpest part of the move.
The $280 billion market-cap increase should not be read as $280 billion of new money entering crypto. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying each asset’s circulating supply by its latest traded price, so relatively small amounts of buying can produce much larger changes in headline market value.
There are, however, signs that the rally was not purely leverage-driven.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $517.2 million in net inflows on Aug. 19, their strongest session in more than three months. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $284.7 million, while ARKB brought in $77.7 million and Fidelity’s FBTC added $62.4 million.
Roughly $1 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs between Aug. 17 and 19, providing evidence of spot-linked demand alongside the derivatives squeeze.
Regulatory developments added another layer.
President Donald Trump used an Aug. 19 White House meeting with crypto executives to urge Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, while the SEC has separately proposed a framework offering new pathways and exemptions for crypto fundraising.
The next phase is harder.
Forced short covering is temporary. Once those positions are liquidated, the automatic buying that helped propel Bitcoin higher disappears.
Analyst David argues that Bitcoin is trading at a substantial discount to its longer-term trend rather than needing another speculative bubble to move higher.
With BTC around $73,000 on Aug. 20, he estimates a power law trend value near $138,000, implying a discount of roughly 47%. His model puts Bitcoin at 95,000–115,000 by the end of 2026 and 125,000–155,000 over the next year, with the core thesis being that even a partial mean reversion toward the trend could drive significant upside.
Macro conditions are not settled either. Treasury yields rebounded after their initial drop, with the 10-year returning to around 4.69%, showing that the Treasury intervention has not eliminated concerns over inflation, deficits and government borrowing.
The next major macro test comes at Jackson Hole, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to provide further clues on monetary policy amid disagreement over whether US rates need to rise again.
The liquidation cascade explains why Bitcoin moved so quickly. Whether the move lasts now depends on something less mechanical: ETF flows, spot buyers, and whether Bitcoin can keep attracting demand after the short sellers have already been forced out.