Tom Lee says the ETH/BTC ratio has broken a multiyear downtrend.
Ash Crypto says two bullish signals are approaching, last seen before Ethereum’s explosive 2017 and 2021 advances.
Lee sees ETH at $5,000 and Bitcoin above $100,000 remain possible in 2026.
Tom Lee says Ethereum can surge back above $5,000 before the end of 2026 — and he believes the first signs of a major turn are already flashing.
Meanwhile, other analysts have pointed to two even bigger market signals that also appeared before Ethereum’s historic 2017 and 2021 rallies.
Could a major Ethereum and Bitcoin breakout be on the horizon?
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Tom Lee Turns Bullish as Ethereum Nears a Technical Breakout
On Aug. 17, Lee highlighted a chart showing Ethereum roughly 3.5% below the top of its daily Ichimoku Cloud, a zone that has capped the asset since October 2025.
A sustained move above the cloud would be Ethereum’s first such breakout in about 10 months.
“Would be good to see,” Lee wrote on X.
Meanwhile, his more bullish signal was Ethereum’s performance against Bitcoin.
He added: “We expect easing financial conditions to be a tailwind for crypto.”
According to Lee, the ratio has moved above the long-term downtrend that dominated the past several years.
He argued that earlier periods of Ethereum outperformance were powered by initial coin offerings in 2017 and 2018, NFTs in 2020 and 2021, and stablecoins in 2025.
The next leg, he believes, could come from Wall Street tokenization and AI agents using blockchains.
In a July video clip, he predicted Ethereum would return above $5,000 before the end of 2026, alongside a six-figure Bitcoin price.
From roughly $1,900, ETH would need to gain about 163% to reach that level.
Ash Crypto Says 2 Historic Rally Signals Have Returned
Meanwhile, Ash Crypto’s case starts outside the crypto market.
“History shows the same two signals before every major crypto rally,” the analyst wrote on X.
The famed commentator pointed to breakouts in the Russell 2000 and an ISM Manufacturing PMI reading above 55.
In 2016, the small-cap index escaped a broad range before ETH advanced from around $10 to almost $1,400 over the following cycle.
The pattern appeared again after the Russell 2000’s 2020 breakout, with Ethereum eventually rallying from its pandemic-era low near $88 to a record around $4,800 in November 2021.
ETH VS RUSSELL
History shows the same two signals before every major crypto rally
-Russell 2000 breaks out -ISM Manufacturing rises above 55
2016: Russell broke out, and ETH went from $10 to $1,400.
2020: Russell broke out again, and ETH went from $88 to $4,800.
The Russell 2000 has now returned to record territory above 3,050.
Previous breakouts in 2016 and 2020 preceded major ETH moves by roughly six to 12 months.
Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in July, up from 53.3 in June and its highest reading since May 2022.
Any figure above 50 denotes expanding factory activity. A rising PMI usually points to economic expansion.
“History is telling us to pay attention,” Ash Crypto wrote.
Tom Lee Sees Bitcoin Back Above $100,000
Lee’s latest near-term Bitcoin target is less extreme than his Ethereum call.
He expects Bitcoin to trade above $100,000 by the end of 2026.
In the July clip, Lee said: “I think Bitcoin’s been down three quarters in a row. But I think it’s never been down four quarters in a row.”
He warned that another negative quarter would suggest that “something’s broken” in the established crypto cycle.
Lee also argued that Bitcoin’s mining production cost offers a fundamental reference point, with a sustained price far below miners’ costs posing a threat to network economics.
At around $64,200, Bitcoin would currently need to rise approximately 56% to hit $100,000.
That is still a substantial move, but it is far less demanding than the 163% gain required for ETH to reach $5,000.
Can Ethereum Reach $5,000 and Bitcoin Hit $100,000 in 2026?
Both targets are possible, but they are not equally likely.
Lee’s $5,000 Ethereum target sits near the middle of a wide institutional range.
Citi’s prediction put Bitcoin at $82,000 over 12 months, while Bernstein put its price at $150,000.
For this to occur, several things would need to happen at once.
Ethereum and Bitcoin would need to hold their technical breakouts, the ETH/BTC ratio would continue to rise, and financial conditions would need to ease.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
