Tom Lee sees Trump’s midterm setback as positive for crypto as his $250,000 Bitcoin deadline approaches.
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Key Takeaways
Tom Lee says a divided government could protect crypto from restrictive legislation and encourage Democrats to support the industry.
Six of his selected Bitcoin forecasts show two targets reached before their deadlines and four missed.
His earlier $250,000 target for 2026 requires a 212.5% rise from $80,000, with fewer than two months remaining.
Tom Lee sees Donald Trump’s midterm setback as a potential catalyst for crypto markets to surge, arguing that Democrats could become more supportive of the industry after winning control of Congress.
The Fundstrat co-founder’s bullish assessment has renewed attention on his earlier prediction that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 in 2026 — and criticism of his history of failed price calls.
Speaking in several interviews, Lee said Democrats were now pushing crypto legislation and explained why post-election sentiment could benefit the market.
But with fewer than two months remaining this year to reach his $250,000 Bitcoin target, crypto faces a much steeper test.
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Democrats won control of both the House and Senate in the Nov. 3 elections, weakening Trump’s ability to advance his legislative agenda.
Lee argued that investors had reasons to welcome the result.
“I know a lot of people thought a blue tsunami might be bad for markets,” he told CNBC.
“But there’s many reasons why this is actually a positive outcome for stocks.”
He suggested that a divided government would encourage negotiations in Washington and could give the Federal Reserve more room to operate independently.
“I think one thing that people haven’t talked enough about is the fact that this might also take pressure off the Fed.”
Turning to crypto, Lee claimed Democrats were changing their approach following the election.
“Crypto’s rallying because, as you know, the Democrats are now pushing crypto legislation, which they opposed just before the midterms.
“Now they want to actually pass crypto legislation.”
Why Lee Thinks Democrats Could Turn Pro-Crypto
In a recent interview with Altcoin Daily before the results, Lee expanded on his reasoning, outlining three reasons why he did not consider that scenario bearish for technology, artificial intelligence, or cryptocurrency.
The first was Trump’s ability to resist legislation targeting those industries.
“Even if the Democrats take the Senate and the House, it doesn’t mean they can actually pass anti-crypto and anti-AI legislation because the president has veto power.”
Lee’s second argument focused on the financial incentives facing lawmakers.
“They’re very likely to flip pro-data center and pro-crypto because now that they control Congress, the money that these data centers bring into the community and the lobbying money that the crypto money would be spending would just go to the Democrats.”
He suggested that investment and political support would encourage a more receptive approach.
“So they’re very likely to support legislation because, one, it brings jobs and money and plus they’re getting political support,” he said.
His third argument was that markets could recover once election uncertainty passed.
“The third reason that I think tech and AI and crypto trade well after midterms is it’s just seasonal,” Lee said.
“These stocks have priced in a lot of bad news and historically markets really rally after midterm elections.”
‘Going Parabolic’ Claim Draws Pushback
Lee shared his recent CNBC interview on X, reposting a message from The Bitcoin Historian claiming that Bitcoin was “going parabolic because Democrats are already flipping pro-crypto.”
— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com (@fundstrat) November 4, 2026
This led many users to speak out against his past credibility.
“Tom Lee has been wrong over and over again with his predictions. Why would anyone listen at this point,” one wrote.
Another said: “That was funny. Never been right but praying he is this time.”
The criticism puts his earlier Bitcoin forecasts under renewed scrutiny, particularly the $250,000 target he supported for 2026.
As CCN previously reported, Lee confirmed that target during a January appearance on The Master Investor Podcast.
How Many Bitcoin Predictions Has Tom Lee Got Right?
The suggestion that Lee has “never been right” is not correct.
In August 2017, he projected that Bitcoin could reach $6,000 by the middle of 2018. It passed that level in October 2017.
His longer-term forecast of $25,000 by 2022 was also reached ahead of schedule, in December 2020.
However, his predictions became considerably less reliable when he attached ambitious prices to closer deadlines.
The following review covers six of his Bitcoin forecasts.
CCN counted the target as reached if Bitcoin traded at that level before the deadline; it did not have to remain above it.
Forecast
Outcome
Assessment
2017: $6,000 by mid-2018
Bitcoin crossed $6,000 in October 2017.
Reached early
2017: $25,000 by 2022
Bitcoin crossed $25,000 in December 2020.
Reached early
2018: $25,000 by year-end
Bitcoin ended the year around $3,743.
Missed
2021: $100,000 by year-end
Bitcoin peaked below $69,000 and finished around $46,306.
Missed
2024: $150,000 during the year
Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 but did not reach $150,000.
Missed
2025: $250,000 by year-end
Bitcoin peaked around $126,000 and ended around $87,509.
Missed
Lee has had many more predictions than these particular six, but this selection highlights the public losses compared to wins Lee has achieved.
Although Lee has often gotten the direction right, his actual target-hitting is less regular.
This was clear in 2024, when Bitcoin gained approximately 121% that year, but still fell short of his $150,000 forecast.
Can Bitcoin Reach $250,000 Before Year-End?
Lee’s earlier 2026 target would require an extraordinary late-year advance.
Using $80,000 as a round reference price, Bitcoin would need to rise 212.5% to reach $250,000.
Bitcoin target
Required gain from $80,000
$100,000
25%
$125,000
56.3%
$150,000
87.5%
$200,000
150%
$250,000
212.5%
At a circulating supply of 20 million BTC, the top target would imply a market capitalization of around $5 trillion, compared with $1.6 trillion at $80,000.
That would put Bitcoin in the same valuation bracket as the world’s largest public companies.
Lee’s longer-term case rests on a massive increase in crypto adoption and banks making greater use of blockchain.
But those changes could take years to generate significant demand for Bitcoin.
With just two months to meet his $250,000 target, Bitcoin has less than sixty days to more than triple before the end of December — making it highly unlikely.
Even if the election result supports his bullish outlook, it offers little evidence that Bitcoin can reach that price in the remaining weeks of 2026.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
