Key Takeaways
- Democrats have won control of Congress, weakening Trump’s ability to advance his legislative agenda.
- Bitwise’s $3.67 million Bitcoin bull scenario depends on substantial institutional adoption and market-share gains.
- Bitcoin recovered from its election-night slide, but US spot ETFs recorded $1.157 billion in withdrawals across three sessions.
Donald Trump’s Republican Party has lost control of Congress, with pro-crypto lawmakers Jon Husted and Bryan Steil among those defeated, reshaping the political environment facing Bitcoin just days after Bitwise outlined a potential $3.67 million price.
Democratic victories across the House and Senate will give the opposition greater influence over legislation and appointments when the new Congress takes office in January.
Bitcoin investors are now facing the possibility that a loss of legislative allies could slow the regulatory progress desperately needed for institutional adoption.
Trump Loses Congress as Bitcoin Reverses Election Slide
The new Democrat victories end the Republican control of Washington that accompanied Trump’s return to the presidency.
The party flipped historically staunch Republican Senate seats in states including Texas, Ohio and Maine, alongside its gains in the House.
Although Trump remains president, advancing new legislation will now require cooperation with Democratic lawmakers.
Bitcoin initially fell to approximately $75,700 during the election count before recovering toward $78,000 on Wednesday morning.
Some analysts attributed the recovery to the removal of uncertainty over control of Congress.
Pro-Crypto Lawmakers Lose Seats as Industry Spending Falls Short
The Republican losses included lawmakers who had actively supported crypto legislation.
In Ohio, Sen. Jon Husted lost to former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Husted was endorsed by Stand With Crypto, which awarded him an A rating and recorded his support for advancing the CLARITY Act.
Brown’s return represents a particularly significant setback for the industry, as the former Senate Banking Committee chairman has previously advocated for tougher crypto oversight.
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, Republican Rep. Bryan Steil lost to Democrat Mitchell Berman.
Steil chairs the House subcommittee overseeing digital assets, financial technology and artificial intelligence and has also been a prominent advocate for the CLARITY Act.
However, crypto support has also entered among some Democrats.
Democratic winners included Stand With Crypto-backed Chris Pappas in New Hampshire and James Talarico in Texas, both of whom received an A rating from the advocacy group.
Why the Election Matters to Bitwise’s Bitcoin Outlook
In its October Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, Bitwise identified improving regulation as one factor supporting institutional participation.
The asset manager, however, acknowledged the limits of that progress:
“The Clarity Act’s failure, especially on such a strongly partisan basis, opens the door to future regulatory risk.”
As CCN previously reported, the Senate voted 49–50 against advancing the legislation in September, falling short of the 60 votes required.
The dispute included ethics and conflict-of-interest provisions involving public officials’ crypto interests.
With more Democrats back in power, more lawmakers may now be able to seek tougher conditions before supporting another deal.
CCN also reported that seven Democratic senators remained committed to negotiations after the failed vote.
Bitwise’s $3.67 Million Bitcoin Scenario
Bitwise’s research presents three potential Bitcoin valuations for 2036:
| Scenario |
BTC price |
| Bear |
$130,686 |
| Base |
$1,599,766 |
| Bull |
$3,667,911 |
The bull scenario assumes Bitcoin captures 50% of the projected gold-and-Bitcoin store-of-value market and 5% of institutional investment assets, alongside smaller allocations from other markets.
Explaining the updated outlook in an Oct. 28 memo, Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote:
“Using the exact same model as last year with updated data, we’re raising our 10-year forecast from $1.3 million to $1.6 million.”
Hougan acknowledged several challenges to Bitwise’s outlook, including:
- Gold has attracted more store-of-value investment.
- Bitcoin remains vulnerable to sharp declines.
- ETF flows have slowed.
However, he argued that the downturn also revealed signs of a maturing market.
“Despite slowing ETF purchases, institutions continued to add exposure through the entire drawdown—all of which is remarkable,” Hougan wrote.
He pointed to Bitcoin’s strengthening correlation with gold and its approximately 53% peak-to-trough decline, which he described as substantially shallower than previous bear-market losses.
“That Bitcoin made this sort of progress in a difficult year makes me very optimistic about what happens in a good one.”
He also highlighted Bitcoin’s growing share of the store-of-value market, which he said had increased from less than 1% a decade ago to more than 5%.
“I think the next ten will be even better,” Hougan wrote.
Can BTC Reach $3.67M Despite Trump’s Midterm Defeat?
Trump’s loss of congressional control could complicate the regulatory progress supporting Bitwise’s adoption thesis, but it does not automatically rule out the firm’s most bullish scenario.
The immediate challenge is attracting sustained demand.
Farside Investors recorded $1.157 billion in net US spot Bitcoin ETF withdrawals across Oct. 30, Nov. 2, and Nov. 3.
From a starting price of $78,000, reaching Bitwise’s $3 million bull scenario would require around 4,602% growth, taking Bitcoin to around 47 times that level.
At its maximum supply of 21 million coins, that would imply a fully diluted valuation of around $77 trillion.
Achieving that scale would require far more than favorable US legislation.
Bitwise’s scenario says it would need Bitcoin to capture half of the projected gold-and-Bitcoin store-of-value market and 5% of institutional investment assets by 2036.
While it is true that a divided Washington could slow legislation, bipartisan negotiations and adoption outside the US could continue supporting Bitcoin.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
