Tom Lee sees a historic market rally, but Bitcoin faces a Fed decision and a multibillion-dollar options expiry first.
Share
Key Takeaways
Tom Lee’s bullish market outlook faces a near-term test as roughly $10.8 billion in Deribit Bitcoin options approach expiry.
BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $110.3 million on Monday, following two sessions of substantial Bitcoin ETF withdrawals.
The recent comments have put Lee’s past $250,000 Bitcoin target in focus.
Tom Lee’s prediction of “one of the biggest rallies of our lifetime” faces a fresh test as Bitcoin approaches Friday’s multibillion-dollar options expiry, with the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision coming first.
The Fundstrat co-founder recently spoke bullishly about stocks and said that a major crypto bull cycle is underway, prompting some bulls to revive Lee’s long-term price call that Bitcoin could reach $250,000.
Try Our Recommended Crypto Exchanges
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com (@fundstrat) October 25, 2026
It comes just weeks after the bullish executive said the “crypto bull market is underway” in Bitmine’s Oct. 7 chairman’s message.
He added that the “cycle is likely to be the largest.”
Lee pointed to institutional participation, Bitcoin’s earlier move above its 200-day moving average, and the expansion of blockchain-based finance as reasons for his optimism.
Tom Lee’s $250,000 Bitcoin Prediction Hinges on Growing Adoption
Lee reaffirmed his $250,000 Bitcoin target in a January appearance on The Master Investor Podcast, linking his optimism to broader adoption and the growing use of blockchain in finance.
Host Wilfred Frost asked: “And your price target for Bitcoin this year is 250,000?”
“Yeah. So we think Bitcoin will make a new high this year,” Lee replied.
Asked what would drive that advance, Lee pointed to “the usefulness of crypto increasing,” arguing that banks increasingly recognize the benefits of blockchain-based settlement.
His bullish outlook also rested on the belief that Bitcoin has room to attract a much wider investor base.
“Bitcoin is digital gold, but the universe of people that believe that thesis is not the same universe that owns gold,” he said.
However, Lee cautioned that adoption would not translate into a smooth price trajectory.
“But the path to getting that adoption rate higher is going to be very jagged,” he said.
“And I think 2026 will be a really important test because if Bitcoin makes a new all-time high, we know that that deleveraging event is behind us.”
Around $10.79 billion worth of Bitcoin options on Deribit are due to expire on Friday, Oct. 30, according to PerpFinder’s Oct. 27 data.
That includes $6.96 billion in call options, which can benefit from rising prices, and $3.83 billion in put options, which can protect against falls.
As the deadline approaches, traders may close or replace their positions, potentially adding to price swings. However, a large expiry does not guarantee that Bitcoin will rise or fall.
At the same time, Farside Investors recorded $110.3 million in net inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT on Monday, Oct. 26, accounting for the entire positive total shown across the US spot Bitcoin ETF group that day.
That followed net withdrawals of $635.6 million on Oct. 22 and $137.9 million on Oct. 23 — a combined $773.5 million.
Monday’s inflow replaced approximately 14% of those withdrawals, leaving the three-session balance at a net outflow of $663.2 million.
What Would Bitcoin Need to Reach $250,000?
Using a starting price of $80,000, Bitcoin would need to gain 212.5% to reach $250,000 — more than tripling in value.
At that price, Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins would imply a fully diluted valuation of $5.25 trillion.
The timeframe makes Lee’s forecast particularly ambitious.
With just over two months remaining in 2026, Bitcoin would need to add $170,000 per coin to reach its target before year-end.
A move at this scale would likely require an exceptional surge in buying, massive demand, and a sharp improvement in market sentiment.
A favorable Fed decision or a few positive ETF sessions could help support a recovery, but would not offer enough evidence that a rally of that scale was underway.
While reaching $250,000 is not mathematically impossible, the required growth in size and speed makes it a highly speculative end-of-year outcome.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
