Key Takeaways
- PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model suggests Bitcoin could average $500,000 this cycle.
- The model remains controversial among analysts.
- Bitcoin supply on exchanges has dropped to 2019 levels.
Bitcoin could average as much as $500,000 during the current market cycle, according to pseudonymous analyst PlanB, whose widely followed Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model has resurfaced in debate among investors over whether the cryptocurrency remains undervalued.
Bitcoin was trading around $71,000 as of March 10, 2026, far below the roughly $500,000 average price projection for the 2024–2028 cycle implied by the S2F model.
The discrepancy has fueled discussion among market participants over whether the model signals a major rally ahead or has lost relevance as crypto markets mature.
Scarcity Model Points To $500,000 Bitcoin Price
PlanB’s projection stems from the Stock-to-Flow framework, which treats Bitcoin similarly to scarce commodities such as gold.
According to the current projection for the 2024–2028 halving cycle, the model implies an average price near $500,000, suggesting Bitcoin could potentially exceed that level during the cycle’s peak if historical patterns repeat.
Supporters argue that similar signals in the past highlighted major buying opportunities.
Some users responding to PlanB’s post pointed to earlier “blue-zone” periods in the model—such as 2015 when Bitcoin traded below $400—that preceded large rallies.
“Bitcoin at $67,000. But S2F model screams $500,000 average this cycle (2024-2028),” PlanB wrote on X.
In total for this current cycle, the model suggests a potential Bitcoin price range from $250,000 to $1 million.
What The Stock-to-Flow Model Is—And Why Critics Question It
The Stock-to-Flow model was first popularized for Bitcoin by PlanB in 2019, adapting a metric long used to value commodities like Gold and Silver.
The ratio is calculated by dividing total existing supply by annual production.
Gold, for example, has a stock-to-flow ratio typically fluctuates around 60–70, meaning it would take roughly 60 years of mining at current rates to reproduce the existing supply.
Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio increases over time because halvings steadily reduce the number of new coins created.
With recently just over 20 million Bitcoin’s in circulation and newly mined supply falling after the most recent halving, the asset’s scarcity profile has become closer to that of precious metals.
However, the model has drawn significant criticism from analysts and economists, particularly after Bitcoin diverged from its predicted trajectory following the 2021 market peak.
Critics argue that the framework focuses almost entirely on supply scarcity while largely ignoring demand drivers such as liquidity conditions, macroeconomic policy, regulatory developments, and institutional inflows like spot Bitcoin ETFs.
In response to criticism that he blocks detractors, PlanB said he welcomes debate but filters out abusive posts.
“I only block insults and rude behavior… I literally invite criticism,” he wrote, adding that his posts typically attract hundreds of critical comments.
Exchange Bitcoin Supply Shrinks
The comments come as the amount of Bitcoin stored on centralized exchanges has dropped to levels not seen since 2019 — highlighting a potential shift in how investors are holding the crypto.
On-chain data shows Bitcoin balances on exchanges have been trending downward since late 2022.
The decline accelerated after the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, which triggered a surge in withdrawals as investors moved assets into private wallets to reduce counterparty risk.
Exchanges saw more than 325,000 BTC withdrawn in November 2022 alone, marking one of the largest monthly outflows on record.
Currently, roughly 2.7 million BTC remain on exchanges, according to data referenced by analyst Darkfrost.
That level is comparable to the amount last recorded in 2019, when Bitcoin was trading at a fraction of today’s price.
Among platforms accessible to retail traders, Binance accounts for around 20% of the exchange-held supply.
When institutional trading venues are included, Coinbase Advanced holds the largest balance, with roughly 800,000 BTC, though that figure has fallen by about 200,000 BTC since July 2025.
Impact on Bitcoin Price
The steady decline in exchange reserves could have significant implications for Bitcoin’s price.
When fewer coins are held on exchanges, the tradable supply available to meet immediate demand shrinks, potentially amplifying price movements if buying pressure rises.
At the same time, the growing share of Bitcoin now held by entities such as ETFs and sovereign reserves are considered long-term holdings rather than active traders.
If those coins remain largely locked away, it is possible the circulating supply available for trading may continue to tighten over time.
However, structural demand does not guarantee immediate price gains.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
