These 7 potential bearish occurrences could negatively impact Bitcoin's price. | Source: CCN.
Share
Key Takeaways
Altcoin Daily outlined seven potential bearish catalysts for Bitcoin from June through December.
Despite warning of downside risks, Altcoin Daily remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin.
Investor Jordi Visser offered a more nuanced outlook.
Bitcoin could face additional downside in the second half of the year if a series of macroeconomic, political, and market-related risks materialize, according to famed commentator Altcoin Daily.
In a recent YouTube video, crypto channel Altcoin Daily outlined what it described as a “worst-case scenario” for Bitcoin — highlighting a potential bearish event for each month from now until December.
Meanwhile, investor Jordi Visser took a more measured stance, cautioning that Bitcoin remains in a bear market until technical conditions improve.
Try Our Recommended Crypto Exchanges
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
Altcoin Daily Warns Bitcoin Price Could Move Lower
Altcoin Daily host Aaron Arnold said investors should consider downside scenarios despite his long-term bullish view on the asset.
“Bitcoin could absolutely still go lower,” Arnold said.
He said that investors need to understand “the worst case scenario” if key support levels fail.
He argued that Bitcoin’s current price action bears similarities to the 2018 bear market and suggested that, if historical patterns continue, the crypto could remain under pressure through the remainder of the year.
Predicting a bearish event for each month, Arnold stressed that it was unlikely all of them would occur, but noted that even a handful could further negatively impact prices.
“I’m not saying that this is likely to happen,” he said.
“But the point is, if one or two of these happen, price could absolutely fall lower.”
7 Bearish Bitcoin Price Events
Altcoin Daily outlined a month-by-month list of risks that it believes could negatively affect Bitcoin from June through to December.
June: Capital Diverted Into Major AI IPOs
Arnold argued that large public offerings from artificial intelligence companies could draw liquidity away from crypto markets.
He suggested highly anticipated listings such as SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic could absorb investor capital and potentially mark a peak in risk appetite.
July: Stock Market Correction
The channel warned that a broader equity-market downturn could emerge after a period of strong gains.
This could trigger a wider risk-off environment, pressuring crypto alongside other speculative assets.
“By July a big crash happens, and people don’t realize it, but a bear market type correction begins,” he said.
August: Rising Treasury yields
According to Arnold, a move in the US 10-year Treasury yield toward 6% would tighten financial conditions and make risk assets less attractive relative to fixed-income investments.
US 10-year Treasury yield has fluctuated but remained around around 4.5%.
"Bitcoin can't possibly fall any lower."
Listen, I'm as long term bullish as the next guy but let me share with you the harsh reality of the current state of the crypto market:
Bitcoin can ABSOLUTELY fall lower. The macro headwinds are there. Here is how it could happen THIS…
While forecasts have suggested gradual upward pressure from inflation concerns, a move toward 5–6% would represent a significant tightening.
Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC, while often strengthening the USD and making bonds more attractive.
In past cycles, rising real yields have correlated with BTC drawdowns.
September: Federal Reserve Rate Hike
The channel listed renewed monetary tightening as another potential headwind to affect Bitcoin’s price, arguing that higher interest rates would weigh on demand for crypto assets.
According to JPMorgan analysts, the interest rate outlook for 2026 depends heavily on how the Middle East conflict continues to play out.
However, the bank ultimately sees the Fed holding rates steady for the rest of 2026, stating that the next move will likely be “a hike of 25 basis points (bp) in the third quarter of 2027.”
October: Failure of Crypto Legislation
Arnold pointed to uncertainty surrounding the proposed Clarity Act, a crypto market structure bill under debate in Washington.
He said delays or failure to pass the legislation could disappoint investors hoping for greater regulatory certainty.
Crypto investors and executives have consistently hailed the CLARITY Act as one of the best opportunities in years for the industry.
In May, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett explained it may be a difficult path forward for the regulation as it competed with other major talking points.
This means the Clarity Act will now be competing for floor time in June with reconciliation, FISA, as well as the housing bill that passed the House this week.
The reality of whether the Senate can get two major pieces of legislation done amid time constraints and competing… https://t.co/xhDRk7Ntd7
“This means the Clarity Act will now be competing for floor time in June with reconciliation, FISA, as well as the housing bill that passed the House this week,” Terrett wrote on X on May 21.
“The reality of whether the Senate can get two major pieces of legislation done amid time constraints and competing priorities is beginning to set in, and the question of whether one will inevitably slip into July is now being asked,” she added.
November: Midterm Election Disruption
Political uncertainty surrounding the US midterm elections could increase market volatility and reduce investor appetite for risk assets, according to the channel.
“November midterm election chaos is a real possibility,” he said.
A potential shift in congressional control could lead to heightened volatility, especially if there is uncertainty with pro-crypto policies.
Historically, election periods have seen sharp swings in crypto prices.
December: A Black Swan Event
Arnold also cited the possibility of an unforeseen global shock, comparing the concept to a COVID-era type of disruption.
However, he acknowledged that the nature of any such event would be impossible to predict.
Bullish on Bitcoin Price Longer Term
Despite outlining the “worst case scenario” for Bitcoin’s price, Arnold emphasized that he remains constructive on Bitcoin over the longer term.
He noted that Bitcoin sits in a much better position than it did three years ago.
“SEC was suing Coinbase. Now, Coinbase is in the S&P 500,” he said.
Arnold also expressed skepticism that the Federal Reserve would ultimately raise rates, even after outlining it as a potential bear case scenario.
“Kevin Warsh is a totally different Fed with a very forward-thinking outlook and way he wants to do things at the Fed,” he said.
“…he wants to trigger a historic boom in America,” he added.
Visser Takes More Nuanced View on Bitcoin Price
While Altcoin Daily focused on downside risks, Visser offered a more balanced assessment of Bitcoin’s current position.
Talking on Anthony Pompalino’s podcast, Visser said he does not subscribe to the popular four-year Bitcoin cycle theory and cautioned against making precise price forecasts.
Instead, he said investors should focus on market structure and technical trends.
“We’re still in a bear market until that changes,” Visser said, noting that Bitcoin recently failed to reclaim its 200-day moving average.
According to Visser, one of the most significant developments is the decline in Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market.
“My whole belief has been that the only time that crypto can go through the growth that I believe it will go through … is they have to be uncorrelated to some degree. And I think we’re at that phase now,” he said.
Importantly, he maintained that Bitcoin remains a worthwhile long-term allocation despite short-term uncertainty.
“If people are sitting there and they have 100% of their wealth in Bitcoin, I think that’s very stupid. If they have less than 1%, I think that’s very stupid,” Visser said.
Visser added that he continues to accumulate both Bitcoin and Ethereum during market weakness.
“If you still believe in the long-term story, then it’s a gift that you’re getting to put things down here,” he said.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
