Is Bitcoin's price finally eyeing a bottom? Experts are split. | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
CryptoQuant sees Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,600 as a potential valuation floor.
The DeFi Report believes Bitcoin has entered a long-term accumulation or “buy zone.”
Not all analysts agree that the bottom is in.
Bitcoin’s price may be approaching a market bottom near $53,600, according to crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, while analysts at The DeFi Report say recent market conditions resemble previous bear-market buying opportunities despite the risk of further declines.
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CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s realized price — currently around $53,600 — represents a potential valuation bottom, though the firm cautioned that it should not be interpreted as a confirmed cycle low.
“Bitcoin’s current realized price of approximately $53.6K serves as a valuation bottom candidate,” CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said in a market update.
The assessment comes as Bitcoin has suffered its third drawdown of more than 25% during the current downturn.
Despite identifying a possible valuation floor, CryptoQuant said market demand remains “deeply unfavorable.”
The firm reported that total Bitcoin demand fell by roughly 652,000 BTC over the past week, while 30-day growth in spot Bitcoin ETF demand dropped to negative 74,000 BTC.
Realized losses among holders over the previous 30 days have also increased.
CryptoQuant noted that previous cycle bottoms were generally accompanied by stronger signs of renewed demand — but these conditions have not yet fully materialized.
The DeFi Report: Bitcoin’s Price Has Entered a ‘Buy Zone’
Analysts at The DeFi Report argue that Bitcoin has entered a favorable accumulation range, despite not yet seeing a definitive bottom.
“We’re now the balls in their court,” said Michael Nadeau, lead analyst at The DeFi Report, referring to long-term investors who remained patient during the downturn.
Adding: “They have the ability to buy up coins at really depressed levels.”
The firm compared current market conditions to late-stage bear-market periods seen in 2018 and 2022.
“I think generally speaking, we’re in the kind of phase of the market where you can be comfortable with a longer-term time horizon as an investor,” Nadeau said.
Capitulation Signs Emerging as Sellers Exhaust
The DeFi Report also cited evidence that the latest decline may represent another phase of capitulation selling.
Bitcoin fell to roughly $58,900 earlier this month amid broader market weakness, concerns surrounding Strategy’s capital structure, and deteriorating investor sentiment. The decline pushed short-term momentum indicators to some of their weakest readings on record.
“We just went through basically the third phase of fear-based forced selling of this bear market,” Nadeau said.
The firm observed that many investors who bought near cycle highs have already exited their positions, while remaining holders are increasingly long-term investors willing to withstand volatility.
“It tends to not resolve with demand overwhelming supply,” Nadeau said of bear-market bottoms.
“It sort of resolves on the sellers being exhausted.”
Analysts Favor Dollar-Cost Averaging
While warning that Bitcoin could still revisit the low-$50,000 range if conditions worsen, The DeFi Report said the risk-reward profile has become increasingly attractive.
Nadeau compared current prices near $60,000 to opportunities investors faced when Bitcoin traded around $20,000 during the 2022 bear market.
“I think we’re in the equivalent of $20,000 when bitcoin’s trading around $60,000,” he said.
Adding: “I kind of want to just be buying when we are underneath the prior cycle high.”
Some Analysts See Deeper Bitcoin Price Downside
Not all market observers agree that Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,600 represents the likely bottom for the current cycle.
While CryptoQuant identified the level as a potential “valuation bottom candidate,” other analysts argue Bitcoin has historically needed to fall below its realized price before a true bear-market low is established.
Jason Williams, host of the “Going Parabolic” podcast, pointed to historical data showing Bitcoin fell roughly 58% below realized price in 2011, 49% below in 2015, 47% below in 2018, and 34% below during the 2022 bear market.
Williams argued that the size of those drawdowns has steadily decreased across cycles.
A long post on why the bottom for Bitcoin is not in
Bitcoin's Realised Price is the average cost basis for all holders
Currently it is $53.6k
Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price
According to CoinMarketCap analysis, the rally came following the latest US inflation data, which showed softer-than-expected core price pressures.
CoinMarketCap analysis also pointed to oversold technical conditions as a contributing factor.
Bitcoin’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently fell into deeply oversold territory, a signal that usually precedes short-term rebounds.
However, analysts noted that trading volumes remained relatively weak, suggesting the move most likely represents a corrective rally rather than a full-blown reversal.
Looking ahead, CoinMarketCap said Bitcoin’s near-term direction will likely depend on whether it can maintain support above $62,000.
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The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
