Bitcoin Down 14% in a Week and 28% So Far This Year — How Much Worse Can It Get?
Share
Key Takeaways
Podcast host Jason Williams predicts Bitcoin could bottom at $44,488.
Gary Cardone agrees that Bitcoin remains vulnerable.
Arthur Hayes believes the AI investment boom is delaying Bitcoin’s next bull run.
Bitcoin’s price could still have one more major leg lower before the current market cycle reaches its ultimate bottom, according to a growing group of experts who argue it has yet to complete a pattern seen in every previous bear market.
Jason Williams, host of the “Going Parabolic” podcast, said based on historical cycle behavior that a price floor will settle at $44,488.
The prediction drew support from investor Gary Cardone, who has recently warned that deteriorating conditions could create additional downside pressure for Bitcoin.
Try Our Recommended Crypto Exchanges
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
Going Parabolic Host Says Bitcoin Price Could Bottom Near $44,488
Williams said Bitcoin’s realized price — the average on-chain cost basis of all holders — was the key metric to watch.
He outlined his thesis in a post on X, noting that Bitcoin’s realized price currently sits near $53,600 and highlighted that every major cycle low has historically occurred after Bitcoin traded below that level.
According to Williams, Bitcoin’s 2011 bear-market low was roughly 58% below the realized price, while the 2015 and 2018 cycle bottoms were approximately 49% and 47% below the metric, respectively.
A long post on why the bottom for Bitcoin is not in
Bitcoin's Realised Price is the average cost basis for all holders
Currently it is $53.6k
Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price
— Jason Ai. Williams (@GoingParabolic) June 9, 2026
During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin ultimately bottomed about 34% beneath its realized price.
Williams argued that the progressively smaller drawdowns beneath realized price suggest a trend of diminishing downside across cycles.
If that pattern continued forward, he projected that the next cycle low could occur around 17% below Bitcoin’s current realized price — implying a downside target of approximately $44,488.
“Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price,” Williams wrote.
Gary Cardone Says Market Still Faces Demand Problem
Cardone endorsed Williams’ analysis, responding on X that investors should pay close attention to the argument.
His comments come after consistent warnings from the investor that Bitcoin’s price was significantly weak and being dragged down by other pressures across the crypto space.
“Bitcoin needs Buyers….. Without buyers, Sellers will get pushy,” he added.
The investor has also identified Ethereum as a major risk factor for the industry, warning that if the network fails to regain momentum, hundreds of dependent projects could face severe stress.
He has described large portions of the digital asset ecosystem as lacking sustainable business models and generating little revenue, creating what he sees as systemic fragility beneath the surface of the market.
“The asset needs real demand to recover,” Cardone said during a recent appearance on Yahoo Finance’s “The Daily Wolf.” “When supply exceeds demand, prices fall.”
While Cardone has said he remains a long-term Bitcoin buyer, he has cautioned that prices could decline substantially before attracting stronger institutional demand.
At the time, he suggested Bitcoin could potentially revisit levels as low as $38,000 if selling pressure intensified.
Where Bitcoin Price Stands Now
Bitcoin was trading at roughly $61,562 on June 10, hovering near one of the most closely watched technical support zones of the current cycle.
The crypto slipped below its 200-week simple moving average near $61,800 earlier this month.
This area has historically been viewed as a major long-term support area during bear markets.
Is #bitcoin flashing bear market continuation, or an early bull market reset?
Bitcoin has been in a death cross for 204 days, with price briefly breaking below the 200-week SMA (~$61.8K) June 5–6. Notably, sustained breaks below this level have historically coincided with… pic.twitter.com/w4nleNdPzI
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) June 8, 2026
At the same time, Bitcoin remains in a prolonged “death cross” configuration, where the shorter-term 50-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average.
According to Fidelity Digital Assets’ analysis, the current death cross has persisted for more than 200 days, a duration that rivals some of the deepest correction periods seen in prior market cycles.
Arthur Hayes Says AI Bubble Must Burst Before Bitcoin Price Can Recover
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently offered another reason why Bitcoin may struggle to launch its next major bull run: the artificial intelligence investment boom.
In a recent essay, Hayes argued that AI-related companies have attracted the overwhelming majority of global investment capital since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022.
According to Hayes, investors and lenders have committed massive sums to fund data centers, semiconductor capacity, and AI infrastructure, creating an investment cycle he believes is increasingly fragile.
“AI sucked up all the created dollars. Bitcoin never had a chance,” Hayes wrote.
The crypto veteran estimates that roughly $1.5 trillion of debt has been issued to finance AI expansion over the past several years.
Hayes believes technology stocks and Bitcoin have become increasingly important together as they both compete for the same pool of speculative capital.
“The connection between Bitcoin and AI stock prices means we must have a view on whether AI stock prices are in a bubble and when it is likely to pop,” he wrote.
Although Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin over the longer term, he warned that a sharp correction in AI-related assets could initially drag crypto lower.
“Bitcoin cannot rally in the short term if the entire world takes serious losses from the deflation of the AI bubble globally,” Hayes said.
Still, Hayes ultimately expects any AI-driven downturn to create the conditions for Bitcoin’s next major advance.
“Eventually, it will bottom, then rise as Bitcoin forecasts an increase in liquidity,” Hayes wrote, adding that he expects Bitcoin to “dump then pump.”
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
