Key Takeaways
- Spot demand fell to negative 273,000 BTC in mid-June; a recovery to negative 100,000 BTC reflects stabilization, not a reversal.
- Strategy sold 3,588 BTC at $216 million to fund STRC dividends; the market absorbed it with only a 3.5% drop.
- Bitcoin ranged between $60,500 and $64,800 all week; breaking $65,000 would trigger short liquidations toward $68,700.
Bitcoin’s spot demand, measured by comparing new BTC issuance to the change in supply held for more than one year, has remained negative since December 2025.
In mid-June, it hit an extreme low of negative 273,000 BTC, its worst reading of the current cycle, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.
As of this week, the figure has recovered to approximately -100,000 BTC, still reflecting a meaningful lack of genuine buyer interest in the underlying asset.
When demand is negative under this framework, new Bitcoin production is not being absorbed by long-term holders. Instead, fresh supply accumulates as stock rather than being removed from circulation through conviction buying.
Futures demand has shown brief excursions into positive territory during the same period, but onchain analyst Axel Adler Jr. described those moves as speculative rather than structurally supportive, noting they cannot lay solid ground for a sustained bullish recovery.
Until spot demand turns sustainably positive, Bitcoin’s underlying trend remains negative regardless of short-term price bounces.
Fed Minutes and Iran Ceasefire Fracture Add Macro Weight
Bitcoin opened the week near $61,820, rallied to $64,000 on July 7, then retreated to roughly $61,800 by Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June Federal Open Market Committee minutes.
The minutes confirmed what the June dot plot telegraphed: a committee divided over the future direction of rates, with Chair Kevin Warsh describing internal debate as a “family fight.” Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, with tariffs and energy price shocks reinforcing the hawkish outlook and keeping the higher-for-longer scenario alive.
Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran drove oil prices higher and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.58%, compressing risk appetite across markets.
Bitcoin’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) shifted from buyer dominance early in the week to net selling of $612 million on July 7 and $714 million on July 8 as macro headwinds reasserted themselves.
Strategy Normalizes BTC Selling; Liquidation Heatmap Defines the Range
Strategy sold 3,588 BTC, worth approximately $216 million, to fund STRC’s preferred stock dividends. Its remaining 843,775 BTC holdings are underwater, with an average acquisition cost near $66,384 against current prices near $61,800.
Bitcoin dropped roughly 3.5% on the announcement, a fraction of the 20% decline that followed Strategy’s initial 32 BTC sale in May.
Traders appear to be treating dividend-funded BTC sales as routine rather than as signals of solvency. STRC is now approximately 13% below par, recovering from its 28.75% low.
Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap places the price in a defined corridor. Breaking above $65,000 would trigger short liquidations toward $68,700.
Downside liquidity concentrates in the $60,500 to $61,000 range. Aggregate funding rates fell from 0.25 to near-neutral 0.01 through the week, reflecting leveraged long positions gradually unwinding rather than a complete flush.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund inflows returned for three consecutive days before an $84.9 million outflow from BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s GBTC on July 8 broke the streak.
Two consecutive weeks of net inflows alongside rising spot prices would be the clearest signal yet that the demand picture is genuinely shifting. Neither condition has been met.
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Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
