Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis has crossed above that of “active” long-term holders, a setup that analyst Darkfost says has occurred only five times.
- Previous signals on the analyst’s chart occurred in 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2023, but five observations remain too small a sample to treat the indicator as a guaranteed bull-market predictor.
- The signal arrives alongside renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and just as roughly $16 billion in Bitcoin options reach expiry on Sept. 25.
Bitcoin has flashed a rare onchain signal that has appeared only four times previously, adding another bullish data point after BTC’s sharp recovery above $80,000.
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost said the signal confirms that Bitcoin’s market momentum has shifted, declaring a “bull market confirmed” after an earlier July 11 reading suggested the bear market was approaching its end.
“This is the 5th occurrence,” Darkfost wrote, although he cautioned that there is still a margin for error.
The rarity makes the signal noteworthy. But what is actually crossing, and why does it matter?
New Bitcoin Buyers Are Paying More Than Active Long-Term Holders
The indicator compares the short-term holder cost basis with that of what Darkfost calls “active long-term holders.”
The bullish crossover occurs when the average cost basis of newer Bitcoin holders moves above that of older holders whose coins remain economically active.
There is an important adjustment in Darkfost’s methodology. Instead of counting all long-term-held Bitcoin, he includes only BTC that has moved at least once during the previous seven years.
That removes coins that may effectively be dormant from the calculation.
According to Darkfost, more than 3.5 million BTC older than 10 years remain dormant, with that pool generally increasing by roughly 8,000 to 30,000 BTC each month.
He acknowledged that using seven years as the cutoff is an arbitrary choice rather than an established Bitcoin standard.
His chart places the four earlier bullish crossovers in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2023. The latest reading is the fifth.
That historical record makes the indicator interesting, but not conclusive. Five occurrences are far too few to establish that the crossover will reliably predict future Bitcoin returns.
$1B ETF Day Adds Fuel to the Signal
The crossover is not happening in isolation.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $999 million in net inflows on Sept. 21, including $381.4 million for BlackRock’s IBIT, $289.1 million for ARKB and $238.8 million for Fidelity’s FBTC.
Bitcoin simultaneously staged one of its strongest moves in months. BTC climbed more than 6% on Monday and traded above $86,000, reaching its highest level in roughly eight months.
Darkfost specifically identified ETF liquidity as one factor supporting the improving market structure.
Still, the timing does not establish causation. ETF inflows, short covering, macro conditions, and changing investor positioning can all influence Bitcoin simultaneously.
Crypto Bull Market Fifth Signal Faces a $16B Test
The timing of the crossover is particularly notable, as Bitcoin now faces one of the quarter’s largest derivatives events.
Approximately $16 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Deribit on Sept. 25, covering 185,908 contracts. Calls account for 110,747 contracts versus 75,160 puts, while the reported maximum-pain level sits at $75,000.
That creates an immediate test for the bullish onchain reading.
Bitcoin has already recovered dramatically from its 2026 lows, ETF demand has strengthened, and newer buyers are now acquiring BTC above the cost basis of active long-term holders.
But “bull market confirmed” remains Darkfost’s interpretation of the data, not a guarantee about where Bitcoin goes next.
The more interesting question is whether the fifth occurrence follows the previous four or becomes the first to break the pattern.
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The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
