Key Takeaways
- Roughly $15.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire on Friday, Sept. 25.
- Fundstrat’s Tom Lee declared a market “face ripper” was underway just days before Bitcoin slipped below $84,000.
- Friday’s expiry contains major positions at $90,000 and $100,000, while its calculated max-pain level currently sits near $76,000.
Tom Lee says markets are entering a rally that could leave bearish traders scrambling. However, Bitcoin now has to make it through a $15.6 billion derivatives event first.
Approximately 182,000 BTC in options are due to expire on Friday, creating one of the largest Bitcoin options settlements of the year.
Bitcoin has since dropped below $84,000, while surging US Treasury yields have added another source of pressure for risk assets.
With billions of dollars in bullish and bearish contracts approaching settlement at once, Friday could provide an early test of whether Lee’s rally thesis can survive.
Tom Lee Calls Crypto Bull Run
Lee’s bullish call appeared in a Sept. 21 Fundstrat market note, which argued that several sources of investor anxiety had already reached extreme levels.
The crypto bull argued that pessimistic positioning could create the conditions for a sharp rebound once selling pressure began to fade.
“We believe a crypto bull market is underway, having started in late June,” Lee said in the release.
He argued this was driven by “a multitude of factors,” including:
- rotation from AI back to crypto
- strengthening crypto fundamentals centered around both tokenization and AI
- ending of the 4-year cycle
Bitcoin, however, has yet to cooperate.
BTC slipped below $84,000 this week as bond markets delivered another warning to investors holding riskier assets.
The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%, returning to territory last seen during the global financial crisis.
Higher yields can make speculative assets less attractive by increasing returns available elsewhere in financial markets.
Bitcoin Faces $15.6 Billion Options Expiry
That has created a sharp contrast heading into Friday.
Current positioning shows approximately 182,000 BTC, with contracts expiring at the end of the working week.
Calls account for roughly 106,200 BTC of the total, compared with approximately 75,900 BTC in puts.
That means bullish contracts currently outweigh bearish ones.
Significant call open interest has accumulated at $90,000 and $100,000, leaving many bullish contracts well above Bitcoin’s current market price.
Around 7,222 BTC in call open interest is at the $90,000 strike, while approximately 6,950 BTC is at the $100,000 strike.
The single biggest cluster across both calls and puts is considerably lower.
At $70,000, the market contains roughly 8,705 BTC in calls and another 7,653 BTC in puts.
Those concentrations help show how widely traders have positioned around possible outcomes for Bitcoin.
What the $15.6B Figure Means
A $15.6 billion options expiry does not mean investors will suddenly sell or buy $15.6 billion worth of Bitcoin on Friday morning.
Many contracts could expire worthless, while others may already be hedged.
The more important market effect may therefore come from what happens around those contracts.
Options dealers frequently hedge their exposure using Bitcoin, futures, or other derivatives.
As the probabilities of different options finishing in-or out-of-the-money change, dealers can adjust those hedges.
That buying and selling can amplify short-term moves, particularly around large expiries.
$90K and $100K Bitcoin Bulls Face the Clock
Bitcoin’s current weakness also leaves a large number of higher-strike call options facing an increasingly difficult path into expiry.
Positions at $90,000 and $100,000 would benefit from a substantial rebound before settlement.
The gap, therefore, creates another potential source of activity as traders decide whether to hold, close, or roll those contracts.
A sudden Bitcoin rally could change the value and sensitivity of those positions quickly.
Lee’s Bull Market Call Meets Its First Big Test
Lee’s bullish outlook is ultimately much broader than a single Bitcoin options expiry.
Fundstrat’s thesis is that investors have already absorbed enough bad news for markets to rebound sharply if macro conditions begin improving.
Bitcoin’s immediate problem is that conditions have not yet become easier.
Treasury yields remain elevated, Bitcoin has lost ground since Lee’s Sept. 21 call, and traders now face one of the year’s biggest derivatives resets.
However, that does not automatically invalidate Lee’s longer-term thesis.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
