Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is hovering near $63,000, with CryptoQuant data showing spot demand weakening while futures demand remains positive.
- The gap raises the risk that recent BTC strength is being supported by derivatives rather than durable spot buying.
- BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick sees Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from equities as a positive development for its long-term diversification case.
Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $63,000 region as a widening gap between spot and futures demand raises questions over the strength of its latest recovery.
BTC traded below $65,000 on Aug.13, after losing momentum from last week’s close near $64,874. MarketWatch noted that Bitcoin had fallen back below technical levels reclaimed during last week’s attempted breakout, while Barron’s put BTC near $63,833 after softer US inflation data.
The weakness comes as CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has highlighted an uncomfortable imbalance underneath the market.
Bitcoin Futures Demand Is Positive, but Spot Buyers Are Missing
CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin spot demand has weakened, while futures demand remains net positive, suggesting that derivatives traders are providing more support than investors buying BTC directly.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju cautions that Bitcoin’s recent price action is predominantly futures-driven, as rising open interest contrasts with net-negative on-chain spot demand. Emphasizing that derivative-led leverage lacks durability without authentic spot buying, he points to April’s market behavior as proof that futures-led rallies typically fizzle out when underlying spot support fails to materialize.
The divergence is not new. Ju previously noted that futures demand was substantially weaker than during the rebound three months earlier, while spot demand had remained mostly negative or flat even as Bitcoin recovered from its late-June lows. During the stronger March-to-May recovery, 30-day futures demand had climbed toward 250,000 BTC.
This matters because futures-led rallies can be more vulnerable to reversals. Leveraged traders can quickly close positions or face liquidations when prices move against them, while stronger spot accumulation generally represents direct demand for the underlying asset.
Bitcoin has already demonstrated that vulnerability this year. It dropped to around $58,000 in late June, more than 50% below its October 2025 record of over $126,000, before recovering to the mid-$60,000 range.
A decisive break back below $63,000 would therefore put the recent recovery under renewed pressure, with the June lows becoming increasingly relevant if spot demand fails to improve.
BlackRock Sees Bitcoin’s Equity Decoupling Differently
The weak internal demand picture contrasts with a more constructive development highlighted by BlackRock Head of Digital Assets Robbie Mitchnick.
Mitchnick called Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from equities “healthy,” pointing to its outperformance during July’s AI-related equity pullback as validation of its potential role as a diversifier and possibly a hedge.
That view fits BlackRock’s broader Bitcoin thesis. The asset manager argues that Bitcoin’s long-term return drivers are fundamentally different from traditional risk assets because it is scarce, decentralized, and not tied to the economic or monetary system of a single country.
BlackRock has consequently argued that Bitcoin can potentially provide portfolio diversification, although its correlations remain unstable and its volatility remains high.
Mitchnick has also described Bitcoin as potentially both a diversifier and a hedge against certain tail risks in a portfolio.
For Bitcoin price, however, those longer-term characteristics do not remove the immediate problem. BTC may be behaving more independently from equities, but without stronger spot buying, the futures-supported recovery remains vulnerable to another test below $63,000.
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Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
