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Bitcoin Price Risks Deeper Drop as $174M in Long Positioning Disappears: Analyst

Published 12 August 2026
Dr. Guneet Kaur
Authors

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s cumulative Longs & Shorts Delta has fallen from more than $400 million to $226 million, a decline of roughly 44%, according to analyst Ardi.
  • Falling open interest alongside declining long exposure suggests existing leveraged longs are closing or being liquidated, rather than traders aggressively building new shorts.
  • Bitcoin remains net long, leaving room for another leverage flush if BTC loses support around the low-$60,000 region.

Bitcoin’s latest pullback is increasingly looking like a long-position cleanup rather than a new wave of aggressive bearish positioning, as leveraged traders unwind exposure while BTC struggles around $64,000.

Crypto analyst Ardi reported that Bitcoin’s cumulative Longs & Shorts Delta has dropped from more than $400 million to $226 million, wiping out roughly 44% of the previous imbalance.

Open interest has also declined sharply during the move.

That combination is important. When price falls while open interest rises, it can indicate traders are adding new leveraged positions, including fresh shorts. When price and open interest decline together, it more often indicates that existing positions are being closed or liquidated.

Ardi therefore interprets the latest move as the clearing of trapped Bitcoin longs rather than bears aggressively increasing exposure.

Hyblock, whose framework tracks cumulative Longs & Shorts Delta, defines the indicator as the cumulative change in estimated net long and short positioning, making it useful for identifying shifts in derivatives exposure.

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Bitcoin Still Has More Leverage to Clear

The deleveraging is not necessarily finished.

Despite the drop from above $400 million to $226 million, Ardi noted that the market remains net long. That means leveraged bullish positions still outweigh shorts on the measure, leaving additional exposure that could be forced out if Bitcoin falls further.

BTC traded around $63,900 on Aug. 11, slipping below $64,000 as broader risk appetite weakened amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

That puts the low-$60,000 region back in focus.

Bitcoin has already demonstrated that this area is not an absolute floor. BTC briefly traded below $60,000 at the end of June and again around the beginning of July before recovering toward the mid-$60,000s.

If the remaining long imbalance is large enough, another move toward that region could trigger additional forced selling before leverage resets.

Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Returns to ‘Digital Gold’ Levels

A separate market signal offers a more constructive longer-term backdrop for Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted that Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has returned to levels associated with its earlier “digital gold” phase, reversing the deeply negative relationship seen earlier in 2026.

The accompanying CryptoQuant chart shows the Bitcoin-gold correlation moving sharply back into positive territory after falling below -0.6 during the first half of the year. Gold, meanwhile, remains near historically elevated levels.

The shift suggests Bitcoin is once again trading more closely with gold rather than behaving purely like a high-beta risk asset. That matters because stronger co-movement with gold can indicate renewed demand for BTC as a scarce monetary asset, particularly during periods of macroeconomic or geopolitical uncertainty.

However, the correlation does not remove the immediate derivatives risk. Bitcoin’s long-short delta remains at $226 million after falling from more than $400 million, meaning leveraged bullish exposure has been substantially reduced but not completely cleared.

For BTC, the two signals therefore point in different time means: gold correlation is strengthening the longer-term “digital gold” narrative, while remaining leveraged longs leave the market vulnerable to another near-term liquidation flush.

 

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dr. Guneet Kaur

Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.

Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.

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