Bitcoin trades near $63K as CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator flashes another early bull signal, raising hopes that a market bottom is forming. | Credit: CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has produced a second early bull signal, which analyst CW associates with previous bottom-forming phases.
The first 2026 signal appeared in May when Bitcoin traded near $81,700, but BTC subsequently fell almost 30% to a June low near $57,800.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $178 million in net inflows on Aug. 11, providing one potential confirmation signal, but macro and price risks remain.
Bitcoin is flashing another potential bottom signal after a correction that has erased almost half of its value from the 2025 record high, but the same indicator’s performance earlier this year shows why confirmation still matters.
CryptoQuant highlighted a second “early bull” signal from its Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator on Aug. 12. Analyst CW8900 argued that historically, the second signal has appeared during periods when Bitcoin was forming a bottom and beginning a new uptrend.
A Second Early Bull Signal Has Appeared on Bitcoin
“The second early bull signal was the phase where a bottom was forming and an uptrend began.” – By @CW8900pic.twitter.com/OgXQuiHR4l
Bitcoin traded around $63,599 on Wednesday, down slightly as investors awaited US inflation data and monitored renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
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The latest signal deserves one major qualification. CW8900 identified the first early bull signal on May 11, the first such reading since early 2023. Bitcoin closed that day around $81,727.
The golden cross between the $BTC MVRV Ratio 90MA and 30MA is very close.
It was far too early to call the final bottom. Bitcoin subsequently fell to approximately $57,803 in June, meaning BTC lost another 29% after the first signal appeared. Bitfinex described the June move as Bitcoin’s worst June since 2022, accompanied by weakening spot demand and a six-week streak of ETF outflows.
CryptoQuant itself has previously cautioned that the indicator is not infallible. A similar early-bull transition appeared in March 2022, only for Bitcoin to be rejected and continue falling later that year.
That makes the latest reading a potential regime-change signal rather than proof that the low is already in.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $178 million in net inflows on Aug. 11, extending their positive streak to four consecutive trading days. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for roughly $138 million of the daily total.
If those inflows continue while Bitcoin holds above its June low, the combination would strengthen the argument that demand is rebuilding rather than BTC merely experiencing another temporary bounce.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has also argued that Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. But his view is more cautious than a definitive bottom call. Hougan has described the market as bottoming and acknowledged that BTC could still trade into the $50,000s before a durable recovery develops.
What Confirms a Bitcoin Bottom?
The immediate line in the sand remains the $57,800 to $60,000 region established during the June selloff.
Holding that area while ETF demand expands would support CryptoQuant’s second-bull-signal thesis. A renewed breakdown toward or below the June low would instead show that the indicator has again arrived before the market completed its correction.
For now, the data is improving, but the May experience offers a clear warning: an early bull signal can identify a bottoming process without identifying the actual bottom.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
