Bitcoin to $150K, XRP to $10? Why Japan's New Law Treating Crypto as Financial Assets Matters
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Key Takeaways
Japan’s Diet passed the FIEA amendment on July 15, treating crypto as financial assets on par with stocks and bonds.
Companion tax reform would cut Japan’s crypto tax rate from 55% to a flat 20.315%, effective January 2028.
CryptoQuant and PlanB signal accumulation, but $150K Bitcoin and $10 XRP still depend on passage of the US CLARITY Act.
Japan’s National Diet passed a landmark amendment to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act on July 15, reclassifying cryptocurrencies as financial assets and removing them from the Payment Services Act.
The law imposes securities-grade insider-trading rules and disclosure obligations, raises the maximum prison sentence for unregistered exchange operations from 3 years to 10, and lays the legal foundation for spot crypto ETFs on the Tokyo Stock Exchange as early as 2027. Implementation is set within a year of passage.
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A companion tax proposal, slated to take effect in January 2028, would cut Japan’s maximum crypto income tax from 55% to a flat 20.315%, aligning with rates applied to equities.
Against roughly ¥2,000 trillion (about $13 trillion) in Japanese household financial assets, even a 1% allocation shift into eventual crypto ETFs would represent close to $130 billion in potential inflows, a scale comparable to the entire current US spot Bitcoin ETF market.
Onchain Data Tells a More Measured Story
The $250K Bitcoin and $5 XRP figures circulating online predate the Japan vote and belong to Citi and Standard Chartered scenarios contingent on US CLARITY Act passage, not Japanese demand.
Current onchain data is more mixed.
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost notes that roughly 11.2 million BTC currently sit in profit against 8.2 million at a loss, but each dip toward $60,000 tips supply into loss dominance, matching stress readings last seen during the previous bear market.
According to Darkfost, the UTXO profit/loss ratio has reached extremes historically associated with strong accumulation windows, though the same signal warns that euphoria at the other end is where cycles typically end.
🔴 The Bitcoin market is starting to reach a significant pain threshold for BTC holders.
UTXOs in loss are becoming increasingly significant and the Loss/Profit ratio is reaching an extreme level in terms of held losses.
PlanB’s stock-to-flow model still points to a $250,000 to $1 million range this cycle, arguing October’s $126,000 was not the top. Institutional bottom estimates from Standard Chartered, CryptoQuant, NYDIG, and Citi cluster between $53,000 and $59,000, with more bearish scenarios from Galaxy Research reaching $40,000 to $46,000.
Based on the stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still reach $500k ($250k-$1m), according to PlanB. | Source: @100trillionUSD on X.
XRP’s own signal points structurally to a bullish direction. CryptoQuant data compiled by BankXRP shows Coinbase’s net withdrawals at their deepest levels of 2026, and ByBit’s April-to-June deposit surge fully reversed, meaning exchange-held supply is contracting even as price consolidates near $1.10. Sustained withdrawals of this magnitude have historically preceded supply-driven volatility.
Analyst Chad Steingraber notes that $5 is a critical threshold in how trading services treat XRP as collateral. Below that level, major venues apply significant “haircuts” (discounts on the collateral value they’ll accept) while higher-priced XRP may qualify for a lighter 35% haircut or the standard Value-at-Risk charge based on liquidity.
In practical terms, XRP crossing $5 changes how much borrowing power holders can access against the token, which matters more for institutional adoption than a round-number price target.
This is what a "Haircut" means in these trading services.
For XRP with a "share price" (meaning, ONE XRP) of $5 or less, a significant haircut is applied.
While higher-priced XRP may be subject to a 35% haircut or the VaR Charge, depending on its liquidity.
Japan’s law widens the buyer base but does not resolve the two variables on which the $250K and $5 scenarios actually depend: US CLARITY Act passage, due before August 10, and sustained ETF inflows.
The FSA now begins secondary rulemaking, with the first Tokyo Stock Exchange ETF filings expected by mid-2027.
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The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
