Week Ahead in Crypto: US-China Diplomatic Gains Lift Bitcoin, but Unlock Wave, CPI Wildcard Looms Large

Key Takeaways

• U.S.–China trade talks signal easing tensions, boosting global market sentiment.
• Investors eye April CPI data and Fed speeches for rate cut clues.
• Crypto markets brace for major token unlocks and continued Bitcoin ETF inflows.

Markets opened the week on firmer ground following signs of progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations, with investors now shifting their focus to key U.S. inflation data and central bank commentary.

The combination of geopolitical easing, economic updates, and developments in crypto is expected to drive sentiment across equities and digital assets alike.

Markets Watch CPI and Fed Remarks for Rate Clues

Tuesday’s release of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be closely watched, as the Federal Reserve has emphasized the need for continued disinflation before considering rate cuts.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Thursday, alongside other key officials, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Governor Christopher Waller, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.

Investors will also parse data on import and export prices, wholesale inflation via the Producer Price Index, and retail sales—all of which feed into expectations for the Fed’s next move.

Consumer sentiment readings, along with housing starts and builder confidence reports, will also offer insight into demand resilience and affordability challenges.

U.S.–China Talks Lift Global Sentiment

Weekend trade talks between Washington and Beijing concluded with cautious optimism. U.S. officials referenced a “deal” to reduce the trade deficit, while China described an “important consensus” and outlined plans for a new economic dialogue forum.

Though details remain vague until Monday’s joint statement, markets responded quickly. Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.8%, Germany’s DAX climbed, and U.S. futures saw broad gains—led by a 2.1% jump in Nasdaq contracts.

The rally extended to crypto markets. Bitcoin (BTC)  held above $100,000, supported by both macro tailwinds and steady ETF inflows.

“One of the key drivers behind Bitcoin’s recent surge is the positive developments in U.S.–China trade relations,” said Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com.

The market analyst noted that the Geneva meeting marked a “significant breakthrough in diplomatic dialogue” after months of tariff escalation.

Crypto Markets Face Unlock Pressure Despite BTC Strength

Crypto investors are now watching how Bitcoin reacts to broader market optimism and whether ETF demand continues.

According to Tran, inflows into major spot ETFs—including BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Ark’s ARKB—have supported price strength since mid-April.

“Since mid-April, major ETF products such as BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Ark Invest’s ARKB have recorded almost daily net inflows, signaling that long-term investor confidence is being re-established.”

However, volatility may return as more than 30 crypto projects are set to unlock nearly $774 million in tokens this week.

The list includes key DeFi and layer-1 networks such as  Solana (SOL), Sui (SUI), Avalanche (AVAX), Polkadot (DOT), and Dogecoin (DOGE). While large-cap unlocks often have limited price impact, smaller tokens with low liquidity may face selling pressure.

As global markets digest inflation data and diplomatic signals, crypto traders will also need to weigh the technical effects of supply dilution.