Avalanche (AVAX) Sheds 16% Since April Peak, Now Flashes Oversold Reversal Potential

Key Takeaways

• AVAX is likely to test multi-month support for nearly $18.
• Corrective wave C could be near completion.
• A breakout above $24 confirms the next bullish leg.

Avalanche (AVAX) has been consolidating after a prolonged correction that brought its price back to a crucial multi-month support zone.

From a macro perspective, the coin completed a complex W-X-Y-X-Z pattern, and the recent price action suggests a potential bottom may be forming.

Technical patterns, Fibonacci levels, and momentum indicators now suggest the possibility of a reversal if buyers reclaim control.

In this update, we analyze the price structure across the 4-hour and 1-hour time frames to identify the next likely move.

AVAX Price Analysis

AVAX has been trapped in a long-term downtrend since its December 2024 high near $55, which unfolded as a W-X-Y-X-Z complex correction.

The final wave Z appears to have completed at the $14.37 low on April 7.

Following this, the price surged upward in five waves and has retraced, finding support again near the $19–$20 zone, a pivotal area throughout 2023 and 2024.

This horizontal zone between $18.50 and $24 is technically significant, as it has repeatedly acted as a pivotal region.

The price was rejected below the 0.236 Fib retracement ($24.16), and the breakout failed to hold.

However, this isn’t a cause for alarm yet, as price is currently consolidating above the previous swing low of $18.28, which coincides with the base of the current support structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart, and this type of setup historically precedes a bounce.

However, AVAX must reclaim the $22- $24 range for bullish continuation to gain traction. Volume remains relatively light, so confirmation via strong buying interest is needed.

If the support around $18.30 breaks, the next level to watch is the March low at $14.37, which would invalidate the bullish recovery thesis in the short term.

AVAX Price Prediction

Zooming in on the 1-hour chart, we see that AVAX completed a clean five-wave impulse up from the April low, peaking above $24 in late April.

Since then, the market has been correcting in a textbook A-B-C pattern.

Wave A lowered the price sharply to $20.40, followed by a weak bounce to $22.80 in wave B.

Wave C is unfolding, with the price likely to test support near $18.30.

This area marks the confluence of horizontal support and a psychological round-number zone, and also aligns with a minor demand cluster that previously triggered impulsive moves.

RSI is climbing off oversold conditions, forming a bullish divergence with price.

This suggests that the selling momentum is weakening, and buyers could enter soon.

If AVAX holds the $18.30–$19.00 range and reclaims the previous wave B high near $22.80, we could see the beginning of a new impulse wave, potentially targeting the 0.236 Fib at $24.16 and beyond.

A confirmed breakout above $24 would open the door to higher retracement targets such as $30.22 (0.382 Fib) and $35.12 (0.5 Fib).

However, failure to hold $18.30 risks a revisit of $16.50 and potentially the $14.37 low.

Key Levels to Watch

• Support: $18.30, $16.50, $14.37
• Resistance: $22.80, $24.16 (0.236 Fib), $30.22 (0.382 Fib), $35.12 (0.5 Fib).
• Confirmation: Higher low + volume above $24 = bullish trigger.