I wrote the article below late last night after a long day on the road. This morning, more alert and focused, I looked again at the short term charts. What was I looking for? Elliott Waves in waves of 5 going up. As you may know, their return (after a very long absence) will signal that the market has turned – i.e., the bear has died. Happily, I see 5 waves up growing like mushrooms after a summer rain, on the 5 & 15-minute charts. I will write about this in more detail in my next article.
You heard it here first. The bear market of 2014 is dead. It was pronounced dead at a Bitcoin Price of $307 on Dec 20, 2014.
Here is is a 5-minute chart:
Bitcoin Price Analysis
What a difference a day makes… Traders calmed down a bit and gave us all a chance to catch our breath and think for a moment. There is a distinct possibility that the price will re-test 304 in the next day or two. It may possibly test the $292 area, but it is doubtful that traders are going to be panic selling past there, IMO.
I had an epiphany this morning. As my readers know, 12/22 is a key date that I have been waiting upon for several months now. I don’t know why, but almost every Forex pair I have looked at in the past several months, including bitcoin, shows this time-frame as a hot-spot. I have long presumed the charts know something I don’t. As much as three months back I was speculating about what event might give so many forex pairs a kick in the pants. I have a conjecture or two but as they are nothing but pure speculation, I needn’t list them here.
The point is: I realized yesterday that +/- 1 candle, THIS 3-day candle could perhaps be marking the low of this cycle. Lows are typically marked by panic selling, and we saw panic selling yesterday.
I have repeatedly made clear my belief that the end of this downturn is imminent. So let’s look for more clues as to when/where the market might turn up.
This daily chart shows just how close we are to the 5th arc. I expect this arc pair will provide tangible support. We will hit the arc very soon. If we just move sideways for another day or so, we will hit the arc at ~$310.
We saw this 8-hour bullish setup in yesterday’s update. The 3rd arc pair has been viciously hammering price for months. The stars show where the market was stopped in its tracks by the arcs. The arrow points to the present candle. We are now exiting the arc pair on the other side. That doesn’t prove the market is going straight to the moon. But it does mean that the hellacious 3rd arc resistance of the past several months is literally just hours from ending.
Gann Square of 9
I introduced the square of 9 the other day, pointing out that 316 was highlighted as a possible low, when the recent 454 high is placed in the center. $316 gave support, but then failed. Per the square of 9 pictured above, the next support was to be found at 304. In fact, the market bounced at 305 and that support has held to the present. (Should 304 fail, this Gann tool suggests the next major support will be at 292. Supports are highlighted in yellow.)
The price ratio page shows there are currently more buyers than sellers.
Happy Trading all!
Disclaimer: Trading is risky. Past success is not a guarantee of future profits. CCN.com assumes no liability for any losses suffered as a result of this analysis.
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